城市建设用地扩张的区域差异及其驱动因素

中国城市建设用地规模随着工业化、城镇化的不断发展而日益剧增。受经济、社会等诸多驱动因素影响,各地建设用地扩张在时间维度、空间维度都存在明显的区域差异,对上述问题进行全面考察,有助于理清建设用地扩张的机理,促进土地集约、节约利用。将城市建设用地扩张的影响因素分为政府推动和市场拉动两个方面,采用基尼系数及基于半对数回归方程的Shapley值分解方法,考察了2006—2015年中国大陆31个省(市、自治区)城市建设用地扩张的区域差异及其驱动因素的贡献程度。结果表明:(1)2006—2015年,中国城市建设用地扩张的区域差异比较明显,衡量差异程度的基尼系数先升后降,最后稳定于0.3左右;(2)财政赤字率、经济政策执行力、经济增长、人口城镇化等因素对建设用地扩张具有正向驱动作用,产业结构调整、建设用地利用效率等因素对建设用地扩张具有负向驱动作用;(3)经济增长、财政赤字率、经济政策执行力等三个因素对建设用地扩张区域差异的贡献最大;(4)影响我国东、中、西三个区域建设用地扩张的主导因素不尽相同。为此,应从促进区域经济平衡发展、拓宽政府融资渠道、加快产业结构调整、提高建设用地利用效率等多方面入手,破解城市建设用地过度扩张的困局。

Analysis on the regional differences and driving factors of urban construction land expansion

With the development of industrialization and urbanization,the scale of urban construction land had been increasing rapidly.Affected by the economic,social and other driving factors,there were significant regional differences of the urban construction land expansion in the time and space dimensions.By conducting a comprehensive study on the above problems,it would be helpful for understanding the mechanism and promoting effective utilization of the urban construction land.First of all,the driving factors of urban construction land expansion were divided into two aspects as government push and market pull,then we used Gini coefficient and Shapley value decomposition method based on semi logarithmic regression equation to investigate its effects and contribution rates to the regional differences of urban construction land expansion in 31 provinces of China from 2006 to 2015.The results showed that:①from 2006 to 2015,the regional differences of urban construction land expansion in China were obvious,the Gini coefficient increased firstly,then decreased,and finally stabilized at 0.3.②The fiscal deficit rate,economic policies execution,economic growth and population urbanization etc.had a positive driving effect on the construction land expansion.In contrast,adjustment of the industrial structure,the utilization efficiency of the construction land etc.had a negative driving effect.③Economic growth,fiscal deficit rate,economic policies execution etc.had the most contribution rates to the regional differences of the urban construction land expansion.④ The main factors that affected the urban construction land expansion in different regions were different.Therefore,in order to solve the problem of the excessive expansion of the construction land,strategies such as promoting the balanced development of regional economy,broadening the channels of government finance,speeding up the adjustment of industrial structure and enhancing the utilization efficiency of the construction land etc.should be taken into consideration.