城镇化对工业能源消费的门槛效应研究——以长江经济带省份为例

高效能源利用是推动工业发展,进而促使城镇格局演化的重要催化剂,同时城镇化的高速发展对工业能源的消费结构和利用效率提出了进一步的要求,这必将影响到低碳城市建设和环境保护等生态责任目标的实现。选取2003—2012年长江经济带11个省份(直辖市)的相关数据,运用门槛模型对城镇化率、城镇居民人均总收入、能源工业投资、工业总产值、城市人口密度、产业结构等影响工业能源消费的因素进行分析,重点研究城镇化率和工业能源消费的非线性关系和相应的地区差异。结果表明:(1)长江经济带城镇化发展存在着明显的地区差异,上海、浙江等东部地区城镇化发展速度和水平明显优于云南、贵州等中西部地区。云南和贵州2012年的城镇化率远远低于2003年上海、浙江的城镇化率,显示出长江上游和下游之间存在着巨大的发展水平差距。(2)城镇化对工业能源消费存在显著的门槛效应,以城镇化率为门槛变量,存在两个结构变化点,分别为36.9%和48.3%。(3)在第一个门槛点前,城镇化对工业能源消费起抑制作用,前期城镇化的发展导致资源和人口的集聚效应明显,资源的利用效率和配置效率得到提升,从而抑制工业能源消费。在越过第二个门槛点后,城镇化对工业能源消费起正向作用,此时工业的发展和生活消费水准的提升对能源消费提出了更多的要求。最后为促进长江经济带城镇化和工业低碳化的协调发展,提出以下建议:加快长江经济带沿线各省份联动发展,缩小城镇化发展差异;针对城镇化率和工业能源消费的非线性关系,采取相应的措施引导和控制工业能源消费的变化趋势;协调城镇化进程和地区工业能源消耗,促进城镇化的健康发展。

Threshold effect between the urbanization and industrial energy consumption of provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Energy is an important driving force for the urban evolution and the industrial progress.At the same time,the urbanization has changed the economic structure and the situation of the energy consumption.It will affect the construction of low-carbon city and the ecological responsibility objective achievement of environmental protection,Selecting the relevant data of 2003-2012 of 11 provinces (municipalities) in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,the threshold model was used to study the threshold effect and regional differences of the urbanization rate,per capita total income of urban residents,industrial energy investment,total industrial output value,urban population density,industrial structure,and other variables on industrial energy consumption.We focus on the nonlinear relationship between urbanization and industrial energy consumption and the corresponding regional differences.The results showed that:①There are regional differences of the urbanization development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.The speed and the level of the urbanization development like Shanghai,Zhejiang and other provinces in the eastern region is significantly better than Yunnan,Guizhou and other provinces in central and western regions.The urbanization rates of Yunnan province and Guizhou province in 2012 were far lower than those of Shanghai and Zhejiang province in 2003,which showed there was a huge gap between provinces in the upper and lower parts of the Yangtze River.② There is a significant threshold effect on industrial energy consumption and the urbanization rate.Using the urbanization rate as threshold variable,there are two structure change points,36.9％ and 48.3％ respectively.③Before the first threshold point,the urbanization rate has a inhibitory effect on industrial energy consumption.In the early stage of urbanization,the agglomeration effect of resources and population is obvious,and the resource utilization efficiency and allocation efficiency are greatly improved.After crossing the second threshold point,the urbanization has a positive effect on industrial energy consumption.The development of industry and the improvement of the living standard made more demands on energy consumption.Proposals to promote the coordinated development of urbanization and industrial energy consumption of the Yangtze River Economic Belt are as follows:The linkage development of provinces along the Yangtze River Economic Belt should be accelerated,narrowing the difference of urbanization;the regularity of urbanization impacting on industrial energy consumption of different stages should be grasped.According to the nonlinear relationship between urbanization and industrial energy consumption,corresponding measures should be taken to guide and control the trend of industrial energy consumption.The development of urbanization and regional industrial energy consumption should be coordinated to promote the healthy development of urbanization.