中国出口隐含碳排放影响因素研究——基于反事实法的分析

中间消耗的"消耗规模与部门构成"是影响中国出口碳排放的重要因素。基于世界投入产出数据库(WIOD)1995—2015年数据,在部门归类与形式变换基础上,本文选取"单位产出碳排放量"、"完全消耗系数"与"出口值"为中国出口隐含碳排放的影响因子,构建"因子变动—反事实构造—效果评价"分析框架,借助规模指数与结构指数对影响因子的变化动态进行描述,并通过反事实构造对"因子变动"的影响效果进行评价。研究发现:"单位产出碳排放量"规模指数单调递减,Spearman偏度系数为右偏态,说明相比于意愿产出而言,非意愿产出"碳排放量"具有内在的规模不经济;"中间消耗"规模指数与碳偏向性指数在截面上始终处于高位水平,时序上出现了显著的递增趋势,说明中国单位出口值的中间消耗量偏大,消耗投入在结构上偏向于高碳部门,与"技术前沿国"美国存在显著"技术差距";"出口值"规模指数呈现"平缓扩张——快速攀升——V型震荡"的阶段性特征,结构指数经历了以基期2002年为顶点、"先下降、后上升、再平稳"的变化轨迹,说明"出口值"作为最具弹性的影响因子,受"亚洲金融危机"、"加入世界贸易组织"与"美国次债危机"等外部冲击的影响明显,对出口碳排放的推动作用存在伸缩性与阶段性差异。从"因子变动"影响效果来看,中国产出、中间消耗与出口的部门构成具有内生关联,均显著偏向于高碳部门,对出口隐含碳排放增长产生了叠加性的"正向"扩张效应。基于此,本文认为,总量控制与结构优化的视角需从产品环节向中间消耗环节扩展,现阶段应深化要素市场改革,加速要素禀赋升级,借力要素价格机制与差别化产业规制政策,从上游环节抑制出口碳排放的输入来源。

Research on the factors of implied carbon export in China: based on the analysis of counterfactual method

The scale and sector composition of intermediate consumption contributes to an important cause of the carbon emissions of export.In this paper,the annual data in 1995-2015 from world input-output database is adapted,and an analytical paradigm of ‘factor change-counterfactual construction-impact assessment’ is conducted based on sector classification and format conversion,in which carbon emissions per unit of output,complete consumption coefficient and export value are chosen as influence factors,the dynamics of factors are described from scale and structural perspective,and the influences of factor change are evaluated based on counterfactual construction.The research shows that the total index of carbon emissions per unit of output monotonically decreases,and the sectoral distribution appears as right skewness,which means the undesirable output bears diseconomies of scale relative to desirable output.The total consumption index and carbon bias index of intermediate consumption maintain at high level in cross section,along with sequential increasing trend,which illustrates that the total intermediate consumption in China is too large,and in favor of high-carbon industry structurally,even the existence of technology gap,between China and technology frontier country-the United States,is obvious.The periodical characteristics of total exports can be described as gentle expansion-rapid rising-shock of ‘ V ’ type;its structure index with basis period 2002 as vertex,undergoes the track ofdeclining-ising-keeping steady,which infers export value to be the most flexible factor,markedly affected by external shocks as Asian Financial Crisis,Accession to the World Trade Organization and Subprime Crisis of the United States.The elasticity and propulsive effect is typical of periodical difference.As to the effect,the sectoral distribution among output,intermediate consumption and export,is of endogenous association,which results in additively expansionary effect to the carbon emission of export.Therefore,the following measures are proposed:the perspective of total amount control and structure supererogation should be extended from product sector to intermediate consumption sector;further deepening reforms of factor market and upgrading of factor endowment structure need to be conducted;through the factor price mechanism and differentiated industrial policy,the carbon emissions of export should be suppressed from the input source.