金融深化对绿色发展的门槛效应分析

在绿色发展的过程中,金融作为现代经济体系中必不可少的一环正扮演着越来越重要的角色。从一般的理论认知和实践而言,可从金融的深化和广化两个角度来看待金融发展。相对金融广化而言,金融深化更能体现金融对于资本的配置功能和金融体系不断完善的过程,它通过引导投资边际收益率促进绿色发展的效率,进而影响整个绿色经济系统的全要素生产率。本文通过构建一个经济内生增长模型来检验金融深化对绿色发展的影响效应,以2003—2014年中国280个地级单元的面板数据为样本,采用面板门槛模型分析其内在作用的非对称性。结果表明:(1)模型推导发现,金融深化作用在不同生产部门所占份额的配置未达到最优时,金融深化对绿色发展存在门槛效应,即金融深化对绿色发展作用存在可能的非对称性;否则,二者以近似对数函数的关系相互作用。(2)实证发现,金融深化对绿色发展在中国地级层面存在一重门槛效应,似然比检验结果表明该门槛效应在1%的临界值下显著,并且其门槛值大小为0.635 5,门限回归结果显示金融深化对绿色发展在门限值前后的偏效应系数分别为-0.056 8和0.129 9,说明中国金融深化与绿色发展的关系呈现库兹涅茨曲线的倒U形形状。(3)稳健性检验发现,控制变量对金融深化导致的绿色发展门槛效应的扰动仅体现在P值的变化范围之内且变化幅度较小,门限值的大小及置信区间不会发生明显变化,反映中国金融深化与绿色发展的关系结构依然稳健。显然,应当大力推进金融深化过程,突破"门槛效应"的制约,充分发挥金融深化对资本的配置效应,从而推动中国绿色发展进程。

Analysis on threshold effect between financial deepening and green development

During the process of green development,the role of finance in modem economy has become much more important than ever.From the perspective of common knowledge and practice,development of finance can be viewed in two ways:financial deepening and financial widening.Compared with financial widening,financial deepening shows the capital allocation function of finance and the process of continuous improvement of the financial system.It improves the efficiency of green development in the way of guiding the investment margin,and thus,improves the total factor productivity of the green economy.To test the effect of financial deepening on green development,this paper builds an endogenous growth model.Then,it uses the panel threshold model to analyze the asymmetry of such an effect,with the sample of 280 cities of China from 2003 to 2014.The results indicate that:① through the induction of the model,we find that when the shares of financial deepening are not well allocated in different production sectors,there will be a threshold effect between financial deepening and green development;otherwise,the two variables interact with each other in a way of approximate logarithmic function.② The empirical analysis shows that the single threshold effect between financial deepening and green development exists among the cities of China.It is significant under the significance level of 1％ indicated by the likelihood ratio test,and its value is 0.635 5.The result of the threshold regression shows that the partial effect of financial deepening to green development before and after the threshold is-0.056 8 and 0.129 9 respectively,which means that the relationship between financial deepening and green development presents the inverted'U'shaped Kuznets curve.③ Robustness test shows that the influence of the control variables to the threshold effect between financial deepening and green development only causes some minor changes of P-value,with the value of threshold effect and its confidence interval unchanged,which reflects the robust structure of the relationship of the financial deepening and green development.Apparently,to break through the limits of the threshold effect between financial deepening and green development,we should speed up the process of financial deepening and then fully utilize the capital allocation function,thus pushing forward the process of green development of China.