绿色低碳背景下中国产业结构调整分析

中国作为世界第一的一次能源消费国以及最大的二氧化碳排放国,在巴黎世界气候大会上承诺于2030年以前单位碳强度较2005年降低60%—65%;此外,在《"十三五"规划纲要》中中国政府也明确提出,在"十三五"时期,碳排放强度较2005年基础上降低40%—45%的目标。在此背景下,本文基于最新的投入产出表构建了产业结构优化模型。通过行业的生产结构矩阵,构建出行业的能源结构消耗矩阵及碳排结构矩阵,旨在能源消耗量与二氧化碳排放量的双重约束下,得到中国2020年最优的产业结构调整方案,并计算了基于现有科技水平下中国最大的碳排潜力。线性规划的结果显示:(1)中国2020年最优的产业结构调整方案可以满足国民经济总产出量最大化的目标,年均增长约为8%;且相比目标年份(2005年)二氧化碳强度下降46.93%,能源强度下降26.04%,达到"十三五"规划中的气候变化目标。在保证经济最低增速(6.5%)的前提下,中国二氧化碳的排放总量可以比优化方案再多下降约14%。(2)建筑业、交通运输及仓储业仍然是中国重要的支柱产业,在国民经济整体的占比份额仍需扩大。(3)从生产的角度看,中国产业结构必须全面向第三产业服务业转型,全面提高国民经济中第三产业的比重,尤其是加大生活服务业类部门的产出量。(4)为了满足"绿色、低碳"的约束限制,半数以上的二产部门的生产规模都应有所降低,尤其是能源部门和金属加工业部门。

China's structural adjustment under green and low-carbon development

As the world's biggest energy consumer and CO2 emitter,China commits,on the Paris Climate Change Negotiation,to reduce carbon intensity of GDP by around 60％ to 65％ between 2005 and 2030.In addition,Chinese government's Thirteenth Five Year Plan (13th FYP) aims to reduce emissions intensity of GDP by 40％ to 45％ cent between 2005 and 2020.Given these targets,and by using the most recent input-output table,the current study constructs a sector structure optimization (SSO) model.Authors derive the optimal sectoral structure subject to the constraints of total energy use and total CO2 emissions.Authors also estimate the maximum emissions potential at the current technological level.Results from linear programming show that:(① the optimal sectoral structure satisfies the upper limit of China's GDP growth target with an annual average growth rate of 8％.Under the optimal structure,between 2005 and 2020,emissions intensity and energy intensity falls by 46.93％ and 26.04％ respectively,both reaching the 13th FYP targets.China's total emissions could fall further by about 14％ under the premise that China's GDP grows at the lower limit rate of 6.5 ％ per annum.② The construction and transportation and storage sectors will remain vital and their shares in GDP should still increase.③ Regarding the production structure,it must shift towards the services sector.The share of the services sector should increase,especially that of the residential services.④ Under the ‘ green and low-carbon'constraints,more than half of the industry sectors' production scales should fall,especially the energy and mineral processing industries.