中国区域能源、经济与环境耦合的动态演化

文章全面解析了系统耦合机制,以此为基础构建了能源、经济与环境三系统耦合模型,测算了1995—2014年中国四大区域三大系统间的耦合协调水平,并从时空两个维度对区域三系统交互关系的变化特征以及差异做出了全面讨论。结果表明,1各省区经济和环境综合指数呈持续上升的良好态势,而能源综合指数在小幅波动中保持了较为稳定的发展状态,同时三者关系极为密切,具体表现为三类指数的变动具有显著的相关性。2三系统交互作用的耦合度均保持不断递增的演化趋势,但绝对水平较低,且区域间差异较为明显,整体上呈现由东到西递减态势。3三系统的耦合变化与能源-经济、能源-环境和经济-环境三类二元系统的协调发展具有密切的相关性。4在探索三系统耦合协调的持续发展路径时,需重点引导三系统打破固有束缚,通过有秩序的相互配合产生单个系统所不具备的发展能力。而从现实状态看,在当前面临经济下行、资源环境不可持续以及区域发展差异扩大等问题的严峻挑战,各省区需结合本区域实际发展状况和比较优势制定发展规划。东部需以雄厚的经济实力为基础强化技术创新,以带动能源高效利用和环境保护;中部和东北需调整能源消费结构并提高能源利用效率;西部则应将重点放在绿色发展和防范环境风险两方面。

Dynamic evolution of provincial energy economy and environment coupling in China's regions

This article analyzes coupling mechanism of systems and conducts the coupling model of energy, economy and environment(3E).By employing the model, we estimate the coupling degree of 3E and analyzes the characteristics of coupling changes and spacial difference of four regions during 1995-2014.Results show that the economic and environmental comprehensive index of provinces continuously tends to rise, energy index has a stable development trend with little ups and downs.Besides, the relationship among them is close and there is a significant correlation among them.The coupling degree of 3E reflects positive development trend, but the coupling level is not high and shows a significant difference between the region, which is decreasing from east to west.Meanwhile, the coupling change of 3E is closely related to the degree of coordination of energy-economic, energy-environment and economic-environmental system.Therefore, when exploring the coupling development path, it is necessary to focus on how 3E system breaks the original bonds and produces the function which the single system dose not have by mutual cooperation with each other.Besides, we try to do an extended analysis of coupling transition mode and think that the coupling degree will continue to jump to a higher level.Now China is facing serious challenges, such as economic downturn, unsustainable resources and environment and regional development differences, so every province needs to combine state of development and comparative advantage with regional development planning.Based on economic strength, eastern region should strengthen technological innovation to improve energy efficiency and environmental protection.Central and northeast regions should adjust the structure of energy consumption and improve energy efficiency.Western region should focus on green development and the prevention of environmental risks.