中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资的碳排放效应

确定中国对外直接投资(OFDI)对CO2排放的影响路径,对"一带一路"沿线国家如何有效利用中国OFDI以实现可持续发展具有重要作用。该研究基于2003—2018年45个沿线国家的面板数据,应用具有阈值和动态特征的面板平滑转换回归(PSTR)模型,评估中国OFDI对CO2排放的直接效应和间接效应、线性效应和非线性效应。研究发现:(1)中国OFDI对沿线国家CO2排放的直接影响显著为负。(2)中国OFDI的规模效应增加了沿线国家CO2排放,其结构效应和技术效应进一步抑制了沿线国家CO2排放,且技术效应在间接效应中占有主导地位。(3)异质性分析表明,中国OFDI的碳减排效应更多体现在低收入国家。针对以上研究发现,文章认为沿线国家应持续引进中国OFDI,并通过提高能效和推广应用清洁能源打破经济发展的"不可持续性";中国政府应继续鼓励并引导具有竞争力的企业"走出去",充分发挥中国投资对东道国环境的改善作用,放大中国投资对低收入国家的技术溢出效应;中国应根据沿线国家经济发展水平对东道国实施差异化投资策略,实现中国投资环境效益最优化。

Effects on carbon emission of China’s direct investment in Belt and Road countries

It is important to determine the impact path of China’s outward foreign direct investment(OFDI) on carbon dioxide emis-sions in the Belt and Road countries in order for them to effectively use the investment to achieve sustainable development.Based onthe panel data of 45 Belt and Road countries from 2003 to 2018,this article applied the panel smooth transition regression(PSTR) mod-el with dynamic and threshold characteristics to estimate the direct and indirect effects,linear effects,and non-linear effects of China’sOFDI on carbon emissions.The results indicated that:(1) China’s OFDI had a direct inhibitory effect on the carbon emissions of theBelt and Road countries.(2) The scale effect of China’s OFDI increased the carbon emissions of the Belt and Road countries,and thatits structure effect and technology effect inhibited the carbon emissions of the Belt and Road countries,with the technology effect play-ing a dominant role in the indirect effect.(3) Heterogeneity analysis indicated that the effect of carbon emission reduction as a result ofChina’s OFDI was more prominent in low-income countries.In view of the above research results,this article puts forward the followingpolicy recommendations:the Belt and Road countries should continue to introduce Chinese OFDI and break the ‘unsustainability’ ofeconomic development by improving energy efficiency and promoting the application of clean energy;the Chinese government shouldcontinue to encourage and guide domestic enterprises to go global,fully exert the role of Chinese investment in improving the environ-ment of host countries,and expand the technology spillover effects of the Chinese investment on low-income countries;differentiated in-vestment strategies should be implemented according to the economic development level of the Belt and Road countries,so as to opti-mize the benefits of China’s investment environment.