近20年来北京市耕地面积变化及其相关社会经济驱动因素分析

80年代以为，北京市土地利用结构发生了巨大的变化，突出表现在耕地面积大量减少，本文通过对改革开放以来北京市人口规模扩大，经济迅速发展和城市化水平大幅度提高等方面，分析研究了北京市1981-2001年20年间土地利用的变化特征及其社会经济驱动因素，探讨耕地减少的原因及趋势。研究表明，随着人口增加，经济发展和城市化水平提高，农业内部产业结构调整和城乡建设用地扩张等将导致大量耕地被占用，人多地少的矛盾会进一步加剧，保护耕地应受到更加广泛的重视。

STUDY ON CULTIVATED LAND LOSS AND ITS DRIVING FORCES IN BEIJING 1981-2001

Cultivated land loses occured in most cities and provinces in China in the past two decades. In Beijing, the cultivated land area has decreased from 456,040 ha in 1981 to 287,633 ha in 2001. That is to say, the cultivated land area in 2001 in Beijing is only 63.07% of that in 1981. After introducing the cultivated land loss process in Beijing 1981-2001, this paper gives a detailed analyses of land use and land use changes in Beijing in 1981, 1992, 1996 and 2001 in order to find out where the cultivated land has gone and what are the driving forces on the arable land loss. The study revealed that non-agricultural construction and land use readjustment within the agricutural sectors are the main causes for the great amount of arable land loss. The driving forces on the cultivated land changes are population increase, economy development and rapid urbanization and suburbaniation in Beijing, and there is no sign that the the arable land loss will slow down in the following few years.