生态脆弱区自然资本可持续利用及驱动机制--以宁夏为例

自然资本的分类测度和分区管理是可持续发展领域的核心议题。文章基于改进后的三维生态足迹模型,分析了2008—2017年宁夏及其各地级市自然资本利用的时空演变特征,并运用偏最小二乘法揭示了自然资本利用演变的驱动机制,旨在为生态脆弱区自然资本的可持续利用、社会经济的协调发展和生态文明建设提供参考。结果显示:①10年来宁夏人均生态足迹以年均5.01%的速率从3.146 hm²增至4.564 hm²,人均生态承载力相对稳定,人均生态赤字由2.462 hm²扩大至3.839 hm²,自然资本的供需矛盾愈加尖锐;市域尺度上,除固原市外其他各市生态赤字明显,总体上呈由南向北递增趋势。②足迹深度和足迹广度表明流量资本已无法满足需求,对存量资本的消耗成为社会经济发展的常态;市域尺度上,足迹深度呈“北高南低”的分布特征,而足迹广度的空间分布与其相反,二者存在显著的地域互补性。③从地类组分构成来看,林地、草地和水域是全区存量资本消耗的主要方式,耕地尚处于流量资本占用状态,建筑用地已过渡为存量资本;市域尺度上,自然资本利用的可持续性呈“南强北弱”格局,各地类间自然资本利用差异显著。④偏最小二乘回归模型揭示能源消耗、社会消费、经济发展和资源禀赋条件是影响宁夏自然资本利用的显著因素,而人口规模、对外贸易、生态建设、科技进步和产业结构演化对自然资本利用的影响程度较轻;市域尺度上自然资本利用的驱动力差异显著。最后,基于自然资本利用空间分异特征,从供需视角提出了自然资本可持续利用的对策建议和优化路径。

Sustainable utilization and driving mechanism of natural capital in ecologically fragile areas:a case study of Ningxia

The classified accounting and divisional management of natural capital are the core issues in the field of sustainable development.Based on the improved three-dimensional ecological footprint model,the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of natural capital utilization in China’s Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and its prefecture-level cities from²008 to 2017 were analyzed,and its driving mechanism was revealed using the partial least squares regression model.This study aimed to provide references for the sustainable use of natural capital in ecologically fragile areas,the coordinated development of social economy and the construction of ecological civilization.The results showed that:①In the past 10 years,the per capita ecological footprint of Ningxia increased from 3.146 hm² to 4.564 hm² at an average annual rate of 5.01%.The per capita ecological carrying capacity was relatively stable,and the per capita ecological deficit expanded from².462 hm² to 3.839 hm².The contradiction between supply and demand of natural capital became increasingly acute.On the prefecture-level city scale,the ecological deficits of other cities except Guyuan were obvious,and they showed an increasing trend from south to north.②The ecological footprint depth and the ecological footprint size indicated that capital flows could not satisfy human demands for natural resources,and that the consumption of capital stocks became the normal state of social economic development.At prefecture-level city scale,the ecological footprint depth presented a spatial distribution characteristic of‘high in the north and low in the south’,while the spatial distribution of ecological footprint size was the opposite,and there was significant regional complementarity between them.③From the perspective of the composition of land types,forest land,grassland and waters in the study area were the main ways of capital stocks consumption,cultivated land was in the state of flow capital consumption,and construction land had transitioned from capital flows to capital stocks.On the prefectural-level city scale,the sustainability of the utilization of natural capital was in a pattern of‘strong in the south and weak in the north’,and there were significant differences in the utilization of natural capital between different regions.④Partial least squares regression model revealed that energy consumption,social consumption,economic development and resource endowment conditions had a greater impact on the utilization of the natural capital in Ningxia,while the influence of population scale,foreign trade,ecological construction,scientific and technological progress and industrial structure evolution on the utilization of natural capital was not obvious,and the driving force of natural capital utilization differed significantly on the prefectural-level city scale.Finally,based on the spatial differentiation characteristics of natural capital utilization,this study proposed the countermeasures and optimization paths for the sustainable utilization of natural capital from the perspective of supply and demand.