沼气的减排效果和农户采纳行为影响因素分析

文章采用计量分析的方法,基于统计报表,对沼气减排效果进行分析。结果表明:2000年至2009年农村年平均沼气消费相当于替代标准煤的煤炭消费602.20万t,折算成煤炭,则相当于替代了843.423 8万t的煤炭消费量。以2009年为例,按照10美元/tCO2来计算,中国农村沼气替代煤炭减排CO2带来的收益为0.43亿美元。据估计,到2015年,我国农村户用沼气将达到233亿m3左右,加上规模化养殖场、养殖小区年产沼气6.7亿m3,共计239.7亿m3,相当于替代1 711.46万t标准煤,核计收益1.71亿美元。文章通过在我国沼气典型省份湖南省的160户农户调查问卷,建模分析包括农户基本情况、生产状况、心理认知、经济状况方面的20个变量对农户的沼气采纳行为的影响。结果表明,农户性别、年龄、是否参加协会、环境保护意识、是否有外来资金支持等因素对农户沼气采纳行为起到或正或负的影响。文章从减排的角度论证了进一步推进农村沼气建设的重要性,从农户行为影响因素的角度论证了推进农村沼气建设是一个复杂的系统工程,需要宣传、培训、服务、技术、协会、资金等方面的配套跟进。

Analysis of Methane Emission Reduction Effect and Factors on Farmers’ Adoption Behavior

Using quantitative analysis method,based on statistical reports,the paper analyzes effects of methane emissions.The results showed that: from 2000 to 2009,the average methane consumption in rural areas was equivalent to 6.022 million t of standard coal consumption,and was equivalent to 8.434 238 million t of coal consumption.In 2009,by $ 10/ t CO2 terms,the profit of China’s rural CO2 emissions made by methane substituting coal in the rural areas was $ 43 million.It is estimated that by 2015,China’s rural household methane will reach 23.3 billion m3,plus large-scale farms’ and farming communities’ methane production of 670 million m3,a total of 23.97 billion m3,equivalent to 17 114 600 t standard coal,with the revenue of $ 171 million.Using survey of 160 households in Hunan which is a typical methane province in China,the paper builds the model to analyze the effects the 20 variables(including the basic situation of households,production status,cognitive,economic status,etc.) to farmers’ adoption behavior of methane.The results show that farmers’ sex,age,participation in associations,environmental awareness,and external financial support for farmers,play either positive or negative impacts on farmers’ adoption behavior.From the perspective of reduction,the importance of further rural methane construction is demonstrated in the paper.From the perspective of factors of farmers’ behavior,it is demonstrated that to promote methane development in rural areas is a complex system involving publicity,training,service,technology,associations,and funds,etc.