老年人旅游消费与影响因素关联度分析——基于京津冀地区2006-2013年面板数据

我国现阶段65岁以上老年人享有较好的社会保障体系,具有一定的物质基础和精神需求,对出行旅游具有强烈的欲望.在我国人口老龄化趋势逐渐加重的驱使下,刺激老年人出行旅游能够极大的促进消费,带动内需增长.为了科学制定拉动老年人旅游的政策措施,本文从《中国统计年鉴》(2006-2013年)中选取65岁以上人口比、老年抚养比、城镇人口比重、城镇基本养老保险基金支出、文盲人口占15岁及以上人口、接受高等教育人数、以及地区最终消费支出作为主要的比较指标;从《中国旅游统计年鉴》(2006-2013年)中选取65岁以上旅游人数比与65岁以上人口旅游消费支出作为主要参考指标,分别对相关数据进行了灰色关联分析.分析结果显示,选取的比较指标与参考指标之间呈现了中等以上强度的关联性,关联度均在0.6以上,65岁以上人口、老年抚养比、城镇人口比重相对2个参考指标关联度最强,城镇人口数量与受教育情况业是影响65岁以上旅游人数的重要因素,分析结论可以作为国家和地方政府在制定养老产业相关政策时的重要参考.本研究的最后,提出了完善社会福利保障体系和旅游业法律法规,提高养老保险水平,保障老年人旅游市场安全及制定差异化价格战略等措施.

Correlation between tourism consumption of the elderly tourists and its influencing factors: based on empirical analysis of panel data from 2006 to 2013 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

In today's China, the senior citizens over 65 years old are enjoying a fairly good social security system.These people have certain solid material basis and spiritual demand, with a strong desire for travel and trip.Driven by increasingly large aging population in China, senior citizens' travel and trip can promote tourism consumption, as a result increasing domestic demand.In order to scientifically formulate policicies and measures of promoting senior citizens' tourism, this paper selected comparative indices including population ratio of senior citizens over 65 years old, urban population ratio, old-age dependency ratio, fund spending of urban basic endowment insurance, the number of people having received higher education, illiteracy rate of population over 15 years old, and regional final consumption expenditures, based on China Statistical Yearbook (2006-2013).Reference indices were taken from the number of tourists over 65 years old based on China Tourism Statistical Yearbook (2006-2013) and tourism consumption expenditures of population over 65 years old, and grey correlation analysis was done.The results showed that relevancy of intension above average existed between the comparative indices chosen and the reference indices, and relevancy degrees were all above 0.6.Comparative indices of senior citizens above 65 years old, old-age dependency ratio and urban population ratio had the strongest relevancy degree as far as these two reference indices were concerned.Urban population and education background were also important factors influencing the number of tourists over 65 years old.These conclusions are significant reference for related policy-making of national and regional governments.Finally, countermeasures are put forward such as improving social welfare and security system as well as laws and regulations of the tourism industry, increasing the level of endowment insurance, ensuring the safety of old people's tourism market, and formalating differentiated price strategies.