中国经济增长与能源消耗的脱钩——东部地区的时空分异研究

工业时代的经济增长是以大量消耗能源为代价的,直接导致环境污染和资源枯竭。将经济增速与环境压力脱钩的同时,实现将人类福祉与资源消耗的脱钩,是实现绿色可持续发展的焦点问题。采用Tapio基本模型构建中国能源消耗与经济增长的脱钩模型,将1979-2014年的脱钩指数划分为8种脱钩类型。结果说明,绝对而稳态的脱钩是不存在的。虽然大部分年份的中国处于弱脱钩状态,但长时间尺度上,经济增长与能源消耗存在"连接-脱钩-复钩-再脱钩"的动态反复过程。以中国东部地区10省份为例,研究脱钩指数变化的趋势和时间分异情况。结果显示,进入21世纪后该地区复钩的可能性不断增加,特别在经济增速趋缓的背景下,需要警惕以能源消耗驱动经济发展的模式重现。计算并比较脱钩指数的5年均值,研究中国东部地区脱钩的空间分异情况。结果表明,经济增长与能源消耗是否脱钩与宏观政策的调整密切相关。不断提高利用效率以减少能源消耗总量,保持弱脱钩是中国经济发展与能源消耗关系的常态。

Can economic growth decouple with energy consumption:a temporal and spatial study of Eastern China

Economic development is the output of tremendous energy consumption, which is based on the cost of environmental pollution and resource depletion.Decoupling human well-being from resource consumption as well as decoupling environmental pressures from economic growth have been proposed as the focus of promoting a green economy and sustainable development, especially in developing countries.The research utilized Tapio's model to establish and classify eight types of decoupling in China from 1979 to 2014.Results showed that weak decoupling occurred in the most years and revealed the process of coupling-decoupling-re-coupling-decoupling between economic growth and energy consumption in a long term.The research took Eastern China as an example to study the decoupling trends and illustrate the temporal and spatial differentiation during the developing process.Results demonstrated that after entering the 21st century, the re-coupling possibility may rise.Under the condition of slowing economic growth, the developing model driven by energy consumption may come back.Finally, the research calculated and compared 5-year averages of decoupling values to implement temporal and spatial differentiation study of Eastern China.Results show that the decoupling between economic growth and energy consumption has close relationship with nation-widely major policy adjustments.