不同返还情景下碳税对中国经济影响及减排效果——基于动态CGE的模拟分析

本文构建了多部门递归动态可计算一般均衡模型,考虑中国经济发展和碳减排的现实情况,以征收40元/吨碳税且无税收返还为基准情景,分析了碳税对中国经济和碳强度的影响;在此基础上,本文探讨六种税收返还情景(返还清洁能源部门部分碳税、返还服务业部分碳税、返还农村和城镇居民全部碳税、减免企业所得税、减免居民所得税、减免生产税)对碳税负效应的缓解作用,同时探讨税收返还政策下碳税对中国经济增长、社会福利、农村和城镇居民收入消费、各部门产出的影响差异,并从实现2020年和2030年减排目标的角度,比较不同返还情景下碳税对碳排放量、碳强度,以及对非化石能源占一次能源消费结构变化的长期影响。研究结果表明:基准情景下,碳税对经济确实存在负效应;六种返还政策均不同程度地降低碳税负效应,同时也能够保证实现2020年的减排目标且有利于实现2030年的目标;对单一部门(清洁能源部门或服务业)部分返还碳税能够促进相应部门的产出,但力度较小,与其他政策相比影响微弱,但都能够有效地促进这两大部门的发展,因此在制定补贴政策时应当考虑行业差异性,重点扶持符合绿色发展要求的行业;对农村和城镇居民的直接返还均能增加农村和城镇居民收入,刺激了消费进而带动社会经济发展,相比部门返还政策,这一政策更为有效的提高了社会福利,但也会进一步拉大农村与城镇居民之间的收入消费差距;减免企业所得税促进企业投资和产业结构调整;减免居民所得税极大的刺激居民消费;减免生产税促进进口、拉动就业率,降低化石能源部门产出,综合来看,相对于其他返还政策,减免生产税更有效可行。

Analysis of impacts of carbon taxes on China's economy and emissions reduction underdifferent refunds: based on dynamic CGE Model

This paper applies a multi-sectoral dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model based on the development of China's economy and the reality of carbon emissions to analyze the impacts of a carbon tax on China's economy and carbon intensity under the rate 40 yuan/ton without tax relief as a baseline scenario.On this basis, six schemes of tax refunds are designed, which include refunding part of tax to the renewable energy sector, refunding part of tax to the service sector, returning all carbon tax to residents, cutting company income tax, cutting residents' income tax and cutting production tax, and the different impacts of a carbon tax on China's economy and emissions reduction under these different schemes are compared.To be specific, it studies the different levels of relieving negative effects of a carbon tax under these six schemes of tax refunds and simulates the different impacts of a carbon tax on China's economic growth, social welfare, rural and urban residents' income and consumption, and the output of each sector.From the perspective of achieving the emissions reduction targets of 2020 and 2030, it compares the change trends of carbon intensity and the proportion of non-fossil energy in the primary energy consumption.Results show that, the carbon tax has negative effects on China's economy under the baseline scenario.The negative effect of carbon tax can be reduced at different levels, and the reduction target in 2020 and 2030 can be achieved, under the six tax refunds policies.Returning part of carbon tax to a certain sector (renewable energy or service sector) can promote its output, but the strength is slight, so the impacts of these two tax refunds policies are weak compared with other policies.Therefore, it is necessary to consider sectoral differences when making subsidy policies and to pay more attention to supporting those sectors that meet the requirements of green development.Returning all carbon tax to residents will not only improve residents' income, but also stimulate consumption, which will foster social economy development.Compared with returning part of carbon tax to a certain sector, this policy is more effective to improve social welfare, but it further widens the income and consumption gap between rural and urban residents over time.Cutting company's income tax can promote company investment and industrial structure adjustment.Cutting residents' income tax can stimulate consumption greatly.Cutting production tax can promote imports, boost employment, and reduce the output of fossil energy sector, so on the whole this policy is more effective and feasible compared with other policies.