| 中国碳排放强度与煤炭消耗的冲击效应分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵奥,武春友.中国碳排放强度与煤炭消耗的冲击效应分析[J].中国人口．资源与环境,2011,21(8). |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵奥 武春友 |
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| 作者单位： | 大连理工大学管理与经济学部,辽宁大连,116024 |
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| 摘 要： | 受能源消费结构的影响,煤炭作为我国经济发展的资源支柱,一方面推动着经济快速增长,另一方面也对中国节能减排、降低碳排放强度提出了挑战,因而准确认识碳排放强度与煤炭消耗之间的交互冲击作用机理,为挖掘碳减排路径提供了科学依据.本文选取1990 - 2008年间中国碳排放强度与煤炭消耗指标,采用EG协整检验证明碳排放强度与煤炭消耗之间存在长期稳定关系,并以此建立VAR模型和脉冲响应函数,考察碳排放强度与煤炭消耗之间的长期动态影响特征.冲击响应分析结果表明:(1)煤炭消耗比重的变化对碳排放强度的冲击影晌具有一定滞后性和波动性,但冲击作用长期持久；(2)碳排放强度对煤炭消耗比重的冲击影响在短期内较剧烈,但长期冲击影响不明显；(3)煤炭消耗比重的降低在长期内会促使碳排放强度的降低,因而可以通过降低煤炭消耗比重来达到降低碳排放强度的目的.最后,从结构性降低、产业传导性降低以及技术性降低等角度,提出减少煤炭消耗、降低碳排放强度的相关对策措施.
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| 关 键 词： | 碳排放强度 煤炭消耗 EG协整检验 VAR模型 脉冲响应函数 |
Analysis of Impact Effect Imposed on Carbon Emission Intensity and Coal Consumption of China |
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| ZHAO Ao,WU Chun-you.Analysis of Impact Effect Imposed on Carbon Emission Intensity and Coal Consumption of China[J].China Polulation.Resources and Environment,2011,21(8). |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Ao WU Chun-you |
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| Institution: | ZHAO Ao WU Chun-you(Faculty of Management and Economics,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian Liaoning 116024,China) |
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| Abstract: | Because of energy consumption structure,coal as resource support of China's economic development,on the one hand,promotes the economic growth,and on the other,poses challenge to energy conservation and emission reduction as well as emission intensity.Thus,accurate comprehension of the impact mechanism of interaction between carbon emission intensity and coal consumption provides scientific basis for emission reduction approaches.This article selects the indicators of China's carbon emission intensity and co... |
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| Keywords: | carbon emissions intensity coal consumption EG cointegration test VAR model impulse response function |
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