碳汇造林项目促进了当地经济发展吗?--基于四川县域面板数据的PSM-DID实证研究

林业是重要的碳汇资源,在减缓全球气候变化、改善自然生态环境、促进经济可持续发展等方面有着至关重要的作用。作为林业碳汇的重要实现形式,碳汇造林项目兼具生态保护、促进经济发展与贫困减缓等重要功能,其实施成效究竟如何需要进一步验证。为此,本文从理论上分析了碳汇造林项目对县域经济发展的影响机理,利用2000—2016年四川47个县域的面板数据,采用PSM-DID模型估计了碳汇造林项目对县域经济发展的平均效应和动态效应,并对其影响机理进行了验证。结果显示:①碳汇造林项目的实施显著地促进了地区实际GDP和人均实际GDP的增长,这一结论在进行稳健性检验后依然成立;②囿于项目周期较长,此促进作用在短期内尚不能立竿见影,具有明显的滞后效应,且实施的时间越长,对当地经济发展的促进作用越大;③碳汇造林项目主要通过优化当地产业结构、提高居民储蓄率、提升地区政府财政收支水平等途径促进当地经济发展。因此,为更好地发挥碳汇造林项目对县域经济发展的促进作用,应继续拓展碳汇造林项目的覆盖区域,加大专项投资力度,引导碳汇造林项目向生态脆弱的深度贫困地区倾斜;在更加注重碳汇造林项目的长期效应的同时,应建立完善项目运行的长效稳定机制,防范潜在的自然与市场风险,保障项目对地区经济发展的长期驱动力;加快改善地区的融资环境,鼓励居民和企业将储蓄和融资能力有效转化为投资能力,充分依托碳汇造林项目促进当地经济可持续发展。

Does the carbon sink afforestation project promote local economic development:an empirical study of PSM-DID based on panel data of counties in Sichuan Province

Forestry is an important carbon sink resource and plays an irreplaceable role in mitigating global climate change,improving the ecological environment and promoting sustainable economic and social development.As an important form of implementation of forest carbon sinks,Carbon Sink Afforestation Projects(CSAP)have important functions such as ecological protection,economic development and poverty reduction,but the outcome of the implementation.This paper theoretically analyzes the impact mechanism of CSAP on the county-level economic development.With the application of the panel data of 47 counties in Sichuan Province from 2000 to 2016,the PSM-DID model is used to estimate the average effect and dynamic effect of CSAP to promote the county-level economic development.Meanwhile,the impact mechanism is verified.The results show that:First,the implementation of the CSAP has significantly promoted the growth of real GDP and per capita real GDP in the region.This conclusion is still valid after the robustness test.Second,due to the long project cycle,this promotion cannot be seen immediately in the short term,which shows an obvious lag effect.The longer the project is implemented,the greater the promotion of local economic development will be.Third,CSAP promotes the local economic development mainly by optimizing local industrial structure,increasing household savings rate,and raising the regional government revenue and expenditure.Therefore,in order to better play the role of carbon sink afforestation project in promoting county-level economic development,more efforts should be made to expand the coverage area of CSAP,increase special investment,and guide carbon sink afforestation projects to the ecologically fragile poverty-stricken areas.While paying more attention to the long-term effects of CSAP,we should also establish a long-term stability mechanism to improve project operations,prevent potential natural and market risks,and ensure the long-term driving force of the project on the regional economic development.We must actively improve the local financing environment and encourage local residents and businesses to effectively transform their savings and financing capabilities into investment capabilities to promote the regional economic development and fully rely on carbon sink afforestation projects to promote the sustainable development of the local economy.