财政分权与环境治理——基于动态视角的理论和实证分析

基于动态视角,对财政分权与环境治理的关系进行理论分析,提出研究假说,并利用1997—2016年的省级面板数据,对两者的关系进行实证检验。理论研究认为:财政分权在不同的经济发展阶段对环境治理的影响不同。当经济发展水平较低时,财政分权对环境治理的影响以负向的替代效应为主,财政分权不利于环境治理;而当经济发展水平较高时,财政分权对环境治理的影响以正向的收入效应为主,财政分权有利于环境治理。实证研究表明:①在样本时期内,整体而言,我国的财政分权不利于环境治理。该结论在通过模型设定、指标选取以及内生性控制等检验后,仍然成立。②随着经济发展水平的不断提高,财政分权对环境治理的负向效应不断减弱。③面板门槛模型的结果表明,当人均GDP达到3.123万元时,财政分权对环境治理的影响才有可能出现拐点。若以环境污染治理投资总额和行政处罚案件数作为被解释变量时,人均GDP分别要达到4.379万元和6.276万元时,拐点才有可能出现。以上发现的政策启示在于:一方面,尽管现阶段我国的财政分权对环境治理存在负向影响,但是这种负向影响仅是阶段性的,不能因为这种阶段性特征,而否定财政分权制度本身;另一方面,由于我国大部分地区仍处在经济发展的中等收入阶段,为了缓解财政分权的负向效应,可能还需要中央政府进行适当的干预以消除地方政府在环境治理方面的扭曲。

Fiscal decentralization and environmental governance:theoretical and empirical analysis based on dynamic perspective

Based on the dynamic perspective,the relationship between fiscal decentralization(FD)and environmental governance(EG)is theoretically analyzed,and research hypotheses are proposed.Using the provincial panel data from 1997 to 2016,an empirical test was conducted on the relationship between them.Theoretical research shows that FD has different impacts on EG in different stages of economic development.When the level of economic development is low,the impact of FD on EG is mainly negative substitution effect.When the level of economic development is high,the influence of FD on EG is mainly positive income effect.Empirical research shows that:①In the sample period,China’s FD is not conducive to EG.This conclusion is still valid after the tests of model setting,index selection and endogenous control.②With the continuous improvement of economic development level,the negative effect of FD on EG is constantly weakened.③The results of the panel threshold model show that only when the per capita GDP reaches 31123 RMB,will the impact of FD on EG possibly reach an inflection point.If the total investment in environmental pollution control and the number of cases of administrative punishment are taken as explained variables,the point is possible only when the per capita GDP reaches 43790 RMB and 62760 RMB.The policy implications of the above findings are as follows:on the one hand,although FD in China has a negative impact on EG at the present stage,the negative impact is only periodic,and cannot deny the FD system itself;on the other hand,because most of areas in China are still in the middle income stage of economic development,in order to alleviate the negative effects of FD in this regard,it may be necessary for the central government to intervene appropriately to eliminate the distortion of local governments in EG.