中国省际水-能源-粮食耦合协调度及影响因素研究

我国水资源、能源、粮食消费量均居世界首位,如何保证水资源-能源-粮食之间的协调发展成为我国实现可持续发展急需解决的关键问题。基于耦合协调度模型测算2003—2015年我国省际水-能源-粮食耦合协调度,并结合ESDA方法和空间计量模型探讨水-能源-粮食耦合协调度的空间相关性及影响因素。结果表明:①我国省际水-能源-粮食子系统及综合评价指数水平较低,呈现上升态势,其空间分布格局与我国水-能源-粮食资源禀赋分布格局相一致。②我国省际水-能源-粮食耦合度已处于高水平,但我国省际水-能源-粮食耦合协调度水平较低,呈现出稳定上升态势,存在较大的提升空间;我国省际水-能源-粮食耦合协调度具有显著的空间分异规律,各地区空间差异性明显,呈现出东北>中部>东部>西部的空间分布格局。③我国省际水-能源-粮食耦合协调度呈正向空间自相关性,集聚状态明显,但分布格局不够稳定,易发生变动。④我国省际水-能源-粮食耦合协调度的影响因素主要有经济发展水平、经济集聚、技术进步、教育、人口和农林支出。因此,国家应针对水、能源、粮食的协调发展进行顶层设计,统筹考虑水、能源、粮食与产业布局及行业外部影响的关系。通过技术进步来提升水、能源、粮食的利用效率,保证协调发展的质量。各省市则应结合自身实际情况,制定有针对性的措施,弥补短板,促进其水-能源-粮食的协调发展。

Chinese provincial water-energy-food coupling coordination degree and influencing factors research

As the most consuming country in water resources,energy and food in the world,to ensure the coordinated development of them has become a hot issue for sustainable development in China.In this paper,the coupling coordination degree of water-energy-food between provinces from 2003 to 2015 was calculated based on the coupling coordination degree model;simultaneously,its spatial correlation and influencing factors were studied by combining ESDA method and spatial measurement model.It drew following conclusions of water-energy-food between provinces:first,the subsystem and comprehensive evaluation index were at a low level,but an upward trend appeared,and the spatial distribution pattern was consistent with the distribution pattern of water-energy-food in China resource endowment.Second,the coupling coordination level showed a steady upward trend but still at a low level to reserve a large room for improvement,the coupling coordination degree had significant spatial differentiation law,and the regional spatial differences obviously showed distribution pattern was Northeast>Middle>East>West.Three,coupling coordination degree was positive spatial autocorrelation,and the agglomeration state was obvious,but the distribution pattern was not stable enough and is prone to change.Fourth,the factors affecting coupling coordination degree were economic development level,economic agglomeration,technological progress,education,population and agriculture-forestry expenditure.Therefore,the government should carefully consider the relationship between water,energy,food and industry layout and external influences of the industry to carry out the top-level design for the coordinated development of water,energy and food.Technological advancement can improve the utilizing efficiency of water,energy and food and ensure the quality of coordinated development.All provinces and cities should,in light of their actual conditions,formulate targeted measures to compensate for shortcomings and promote the coordinated development of water-energy-food.