中国气候变化的科学新认知

了解和认识百年来中国气候发生的变化、引起其变化的驱动因素以及未来的可能变化,可以更好地适应和减缓气候变化。本文综合评估了观测到的中国气候变化事实、中国气候变化的驱动力、中国未来气候变化预估三大方面,分析了气候变暖的趋势、水循环以及降水和冰川变化、极端天气气候事件变化、生物化学循环、海洋和土地覆盖变化及其气候效应以及未来气候变化的特点和趋势等最新科学进展。在中国百年温度趋势、气候系统多气候指标变化特征、极端天气气候事件中的人类活动作用以及气候系统模拟能力等方面的研究有了新的进展。可以看到中国气候变暖趋势持续、大气二氧化碳等长寿命温室气体浓度继续增长、人为强迫影响了多种气候要素在强度和频率的变化,中国陆地生态系统的固碳量增加。本文最后提出未来中国气候变化研究需要进一步加强的问题,包括:中国气候变化中的城市化效应、气候系统内部变率在年代际变化中的作用、气溶胶-云-降雨相互作用的机理、大范围土地利用变化(如大规模生态恢复工程)的气候效应,以及云辐射反馈、海洋环流对气候变化的响应与反馈、气候-碳循环反馈等过程对气候模拟不确定的影响等。

A recent scientific understanding of climate change in China

Understanding China’s climate change over the past century and the drivers of the change and its future trend,we can better adapt to and mitigate climate change.This paper comprehensively assessed three aspects,namely,the observed climate change in China,its driving forces and future projection.Also analyzed in this study were aspects such as climate warming,water cycle and changes in precipitation patterns and glacial features,changes of extreme climate events,biochemical circulation,sea and land cover changes and their impact on climate effect,as well as future climate change.New advances have been made in the research of the temperature trend in the past 100 years in China,the changing characteristics of multiple climate indicators in the climate system,the role of human activities in extreme weather and climate events,and the simulation capability of the climate system.It can be seen that the trend of climate warming in China continues,the concentration of long-lived greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide continues to increase,anthropogenic forcers have affected the intensity and frequency of various climate variables,and carbon sequestration in China’s terrestrial ecosystems is increasing.Finally,the paper puts forward some suggestions to be further discussed in future research,including China’s urbanization climate effect,the role of internal variability in the decadal change,aerosol-cloud-rainfall interaction mechanism,the climate effect of changes in wide-range land use,such as large-scale ecological restoration project,as well as the uncertain impact on climate simulation by cloud radiation feedback,response and feedback of ocean circulation on climate change,and carbon cycle feedback on climate,etc.