曹妃甸工业区水资源承载能力研究

根据曹妃甸地区地表水和地下水资源异常紧缺、降水量不足、主要依靠跨区域调水的特点,综合考虑环境、人口、社会、经济等各方面要素,选取水资源子系统、生态环境子系统和社会经济发展子系统,并运用区域水资源规划管理理论,采用多目标规划技术建立了水资源承载力的多目标评价模型;结合按照各种发展模式设定的A,B,C,D四种情景,采用隶属度的方法分析计算了曹妃甸工业区2010,2020,2030年在A,B,C,D四种不同发展情景下的水资源承载力,得出A,B发展模式下曹妃甸工业区水资源准不可承载,C,D发展模式下可承载的模型预测结果;并针对评价结果,结合工业区实际情况,提出曹妃甸工业区提高水资源承载力的对策.

Research of the Water Resources Carrying Capacity and the Countermeasures in the Caofeidian Industrial Park

According to the actual urgent situation about water resources, with the comprehensive consideration of environment, population, society and economics, water resources subsystem, ecological environment subsystem and social economics subsystem were chosen to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity in Caofeidian Industrial Park. Integrated model for water resources carrying capacity was established. Multi-objective management theory of the water resources was applied to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity. Water resources carrying capacity is calculated under the A, B, C, D four different situations in year 2010, 2020, and 2030. The result shows that under A, B situation, the water resources carrying capacity is unbearable while under C, D situation, it is bearable. The research also suggests some countermeasures to improve the water resources carrying capacity.