农户生态耕种采纳意愿及其异质性分析——基于TPB框架的实证研究

生态耕种对改善农业生态环境、提升耕地保护成效和保障农作物质量安全起着重要作用。基于江西省11市47县（区）1 488份农户微观调查数据，在计划行为理论指导下，运用Logistic回归模型对农户生态耕种采纳意愿的影响因素开展实证研究。研究结果表明：（1）有89.85%的样本农户表示愿意采纳生态耕种，并对生态耕种的收益预期和推广预期维持在较高水平；（2）行为态度、主观规范和知觉行为控制对农户生态耕种采纳意愿有着显著的影响，其中，生态耕种推广预期、生产交流、邻里效应、政策补贴和技术培训变量是影响农户采纳意愿的关键因素；（3）不同限定条件下，农户生态耕种采纳意愿影响因素具有差异性，其中收益预期、信息传播力度和技术培训对低推广预期农户生态耕种采纳意愿影响更强；风险预期越低，对缺乏交流农户的采纳意愿影响更大；邻里效应小的农户主要受信息传播力度和技术培训的影响；需要政策补贴的农户，生产交流越频繁，邻里效应越强，其采纳愿望更强烈；参加了培训的农户，影响其采纳意愿的因素主要有收益预期与信息传播力度。政府应在加强生态耕种宣传与推广、搭建农户生产交流平台、完善生态耕种补贴与激励政策等方面制定针对性的措施。

Farmers’Willingness to Adopt Ecological Farming and Their Heterogeneity：Based on the TPB Framework

Ecological farming plays an important role in improving the agricultural ecological environment, improving the effectiveness of farmland protection and ensuring the quality and safety of crops. Based on the micro-survey data of 1488 households in 47 counties (districts) of 11 cities in Jiangxi Province, under the guidance of the theory of planned behavior, the Logistic regression model was used to conduct empirical research on the influencing factors of farmers' willingness to adopt ecological farming. The results of the study showed that (1) 89.85% of the sample farmers expressed their willingness to adopt ecological farming, maintained the expected income and promotion expectations of ecological farming at a high level. (2) Behavioral attitude, subjective norms and perceptual behavior control have significant influence on farmers' willingness to adopt ecological farming. Among them, ecological farming promotion prospects, production exchange, neighborhood effect, policy subsidy and technical training variables are the key factors affecting farmers' willingness to adopt. . (3) Under different qualifications, the factors affecting farmers' willingness to adopt ecological farming are different. Among them, income expectation, information dissemination intensity and technical training have stronger influence on the low-promotion prospects of farmers' ecological farming adoption intention; the lower the risk expectation, the lack of communication Farmers' willingness to adopt is more influential; farmers with small neighborhood effects are mainly affected by information dissemination and technical training; farmers who need policy subsidies have more frequent production exchanges, stronger neighborhood effect, and stronger adoption intentions; Farmers, the factors affecting their willingness to adopt are mainly income expectations and information dissemination. The government should formulate targeted measures in strengthening the promotion and promotion of ecological farming, building a production exchange platform for farmers, and improving ecological farming subsidies and incentive policies.