基于GWR模型的江苏省耕地集约利用水平时空变化特征及影响因素

全面考虑耕地集约利用的综合效益,从投入强度、利用程度、产出效益和持续状况4个方面选取了15个指标,采用均方差决策法确定指标权重,构建了耕地集约利用水平评价指标体系,对江苏省2000～2015年的耕地集约利用水平进行了时空变化规律的探索分析,并运用GWR模型进行了影响因素分析。探究江苏省的耕地集约利用水平及其变化趋势,寻求耕地节约集约利用模式,为缓解我国人地矛盾,保证国家粮食安全提供借鉴。研究表明:(1) 2000～2015年江苏省的耕地集约利用整体水平呈现出先上升后平稳发展的变化趋势,其时序变化可分为两个不同阶段。(2)苏北地区的县(市)多处于中高度集约利用水平且多为高度水平,苏中地区的状况有所好转,但苏南地区的大部分县(市)整体保持低度集约利用水平甚至不集约水平稳定不变。整体来看,江苏省的耕地集约利用水平呈现出北高南低的空间分布特征。(3) GWR模型能够科学准确地进行耕地集约利用影响因素的分析,投入强度是影响江苏省耕地集约利用水平极为重要的因素,其次是持续状况,而利用程度的影响程度存在明显的时空差异,产出效益的影响程度在逐渐增强。

Temporal and Spatial Variation of Cultivated Land Intensive Use Level and Its Influencing Factors in Jiangsu Province Based on GWR Model

The research method: This paper considered the comprehensive benefit of intensive use of cultivated land, and selected 15 indexes from four aspects: input intensity, utilization degree, output benefit and sustainable condition. The methods of entropy weight and mean variance decision were used to determine the index weight synthetically, and the evaluation of intensive utilization of cultivated land was constructed. The system of spatial and temporal variation of cultivated land intensive use level in Northern Jiangsu from 2000 to 2015 were analyzed, and the GWR model was used to analyze the influence factors. The purpose of this study was to explore the level of intensive use of cultivated land and its changing trend in Northern Jiangsu Province, and to seek the mode of saving and intensive use of cultivated land as a reference for alleviating the contradiction between people and land, and guaranteeing the national food security. The results and conclusions were as follows:(1) from the overall level of intensive use of cultivated land in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2015, the trend of the first rising and stable development were presented, and the change of time series could be divided into two different stages. （2）The counties(cities) in Northern Jiangsu were mostly in the middle and high intensive use level and high level. The state of the Central Jiangsu area had improved, but most of the counties(cities) in the Southern Jiangsu maintained the level of low intensive use or not even intensive level. Overall, the intensive use level of cultivated land in Jiangsu showed the spatial distribution characteristics of the north and the south.(3) GWR can scientifically and accurately analyze the factors affecting the intensive use of cultivated land. The results showed that the intensity of input was the most important factor affecting the intensive use of cultivated land in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2015, followed by the continuous situation, and the extent of the impact of the utilization degree had obvious spatial and temporal difference, and the effect of output benefit was increasing gradually.