基于生态足迹的生态经济评价方法研究——以江苏省阜宁县为例

一个国家或地区的作物生产是通过轮作进行的，某些地区存在耕地的弃耕现象。Wackernagel生态足迹方法没有考虑复种的影响，耕地类生态足迹核算结果实际是播种面积，而生态承载力核算得到的是耕地面积，因此，二者不具有可比性，生态足迹盈余核算存在逻辑性错误。从理论角度采用复种指数修正耕地类生态足迹，使核算结果为耕地面积，增强了生态足迹和生态承载力的可比性。用改进的生态足迹核算方法，分析了阜宁县区域生态经济系统1995~2003年的生态供需状况及发展能力变动趋势，采用生态足迹盈余强度评价区域可持续发展能力。1995~2003年，阜宁县人均生态足迹从1.120 7 hm2增加到2.434 0 hm2，人均生态承载力变化较小，人均生态赤字从0.815 3 hm2增加为2.017 2 hm2，发展能力由1.226 5增加为3.140 7，生态足迹盈余强度由-1.226 5增强为-0.495 7 hm2。基于改进的生态足迹核算方法得到的发展能力和人均GDP之间的相关系数大于Wackernagel方法所得结果，表明改进的生态足迹方法能更好地反映区域社会经济状况。

METHOD FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF ECOLOGICAL ECONOMIC SYSTEM ON THE BASIS OF ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT——A CASE IN FUNING COUNTY OF JIANGSU PROVINCE, CHINA

The calculated area for cropland by Wackernagel's method does not consider the influence of cropping index. For this reason, the production in certain country or region is achieved by annual multiple cropping, and in some areas there is an abandon of cropland. The result of calculated land by this method in ecological footprint is the area of planting of crop but not of the cropland. From this view, Wackernagel's method enlarges or dwindles the ecological footprint what human need in fact. So, footprint of cropland is not in accordance with biocapacity of cropland, for the area of cropland in biocapacity is not planting. There is a logic error of ecological remainder / deficit for the identical problem of footprint and biocapacity. The paper improved the method of ecological footprint by regulated cropland area with cropping index. The result is the area of cropland that human needed, but not of cropping. Ecological supply/demand and development ability in Funing County of Jiangsu Province from 1995 to 2003 were analyzed with the improved method of ecological footprint. It is suggested that ecological remainder/ 10 000 yuan GDP as the indicator of regional sustainable development ability. From 1995 to 2003, ecological footprint in Funing County decreased from 1.1207 hm2 per capita to 2.434 0 hm2 per capita, ecological capacity per capita changed very little, ecological deficit increased from 0.8153 hm2 per capita to 2.017 2 hm2 per capita, development ability increased from 1.330 6 to 3.140 7, ecological deficit per 10 000 yuan GDP decreased from 1.226 5 hm2 to 0.495 7 hm2. The correlation index calculated by the improved ecological footprint method between development ability and GDP per capita is larger than that by the Wackernagel's method, indicating that the development ability based on the improved ecological footprint method may represent the social economic situation better than that based on Wackernagel's method.