中国种植业碳排放与其产业发展关系的研究

研究首先测算了我国1992~2010年期间以及31个省（市、区）2010年的种植业碳排放量。在此基础上，运用序列平稳性检验、协整分析方法等计量经济分析方法考察了中国1992~2010年种植业碳排放与其产业发展间的关系。研究表明：（1）2010年我国种植业碳排放总量为18 36684万t，较1992年增加了3562%，呈现“上升-平稳-上升”的3个阶段变化趋势。横向来看，区域差异明显，排在前10位的地区占全国种植业碳排总量的6297%，而排在后10位的地区仅占全国718%；江西种植业碳排放强度最高，达1 19786 kg/万元种植业产值，北京最低，仅为21986 kg/万元种植业产值。（2）种植业产业发展与其碳排放之间存在协整关系，即长期均衡关系，但短期内会偏离长期均衡，种植业碳排放长期对短期偏离均衡的调整力度为4234%，而种植业产业发展偏离长期均衡时，系统因素不能使偏差回到长期均衡状态，需借助外力调整；（3）种植业产业发展与其碳排放互为因果关系；（4）产业发展带来的冲击能够解释种植业碳排放变化的3757%，而碳排放的变化对其产业发展的解释水平仅为680%

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PLANTING INDUSTRY CARBON EMISSIONS AND ITS INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA

Carbon emissions from planting industry in China during the period of 1992-2010 as well as those of 31 provinces in 2010 were first estimated in this study. Based on the estimation, to explore the relationship between planting industry development and its carbon emissions, some econometric methods, such as the sequence stationary test, agricultural carbon emissions, were applied into the analysis of the relevant data of planting industry development and planting industry carbon emissions in China during the period of 1992-2010. The results showed as follows. （1）Planting industry carbon emissions in the year of 2010 was 183668 4 million tons, showing an increase of 3562% compared to 1992. Carbon emissions caused by agricultural material inputs, paddy fields and soil accounted for 5326%, 3492% and 1182% of the total, respectively. It existed obvious regional difference. The top ten regions accounted for 6297% of the total planting industry carbon emissions, while the last ten regions accounted for only 718%. And the planting industry carbon emission intensity of Jiangxi province was the highest, reaching as high as 1 19786 kilograms per ten thousand Yuan value of planting industrial output, while Beijing was the lowest, as low as 21986 kilograms per ten thousand Yuan value of planting industrial output. （2）It existed co integration relationship between planting industry development and planting industry carbon emissions, suggesting a long term equilibrium relationship. The planting industry development by 1% led to an increase of 0413 5% of planting industry carbon emissions, resulted in that the long term elasticity of planting industry carbon emissions for planting industry development was 0413 5. According to the short term error correction model, the short term elasticity of planting industry carbon emissions for planting industry development was 0641 7, and a dynamic adjustment mechanism existed between them. The error correction coefficient (-0423 4) was negative, in line with the reverse correction mechanism. With the existence of short term deviation of planting industry carbon emissions from the long run equilibrium, 4234% of short term deviation will be adjusted in order to achieve equilibrium in long term, while long term deviation of planting industry development cannot be adjusted by system factors except external force. （3）The Granger causality test showed that planting industry development and planting industry carbon emissions were reciprocal causation relationship. It respectively existed unidirectional causal relationship of planting industry development to planting industry carbon emissions at the lag length of 1, and unidirectional causal relationship of planting industry carbon emissions to the planting industry development at the lag length of 2. At the lag length of 3, there was a two way causal relationship between planting industry development and planting industry carbon emissions. Therefore, it can be broadly considered that planting industry development and planting industry carbon emissions are mutually reinforcing. （4）The analysis of impulse response function showed a weak response of planting industry development to a standard shock of planting industry carbon emissions, and a more intense reaction of planting industry carbon emissions to a standard shock of planting industry development. 3757% of the change in planting industry carbon emissions could be explained by the impact of planting industry development, while only 680% of planting industry development could be explained by the increase in planting industry carbon emissions