区域水环境系统脆弱性指标体系及综合决策模型研究

目前水环境系统脆弱性研究主要局限于水环境系统的单方面脆弱性研究，过于片面化，需要综合考虑水资源、水环境质量、旱涝灾害、社会经济以及生态环境等方面的脆弱性。根据水环境系统脆弱性是系统状态受到系统压力引起的敏感性以及系统状态对系统压力的适应性响应的观点，采用“压力-状态-响应”模式构建区域水环境系统脆弱性指标体系。区域水环境系统脆弱性研究中客观存在诸多不确定性，利用联系数描述上述不确定性过程中差异度系数在［-1,1］上取值仍存在不确定性，为此，构造三角模糊数刻画差异度系数取值的不确定性，给出三角模糊联系数的基本形式，取置信水平得出置信区间联系数，采用期望-方差排序法对置信区间联系数进行决策分析，建立基于三角模糊联系数的系统综合决策模型。此模型用于安徽省水环境系统脆弱性评价的结果表明，安徽省区域水环境系统脆弱等级介于［2.731 3.620］之间，脆弱性状况不容乐观，应采取相应措施改善区域水环境质量，降低区域水环境系统脆弱性，保障区域社会经济及生态环境的可持续发展

RESEARCH ON THE INDEXES AND POLICY DECISION MAKING MODELS OF REGIONAL WATER ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEM VULNERABILITY

Frequent occurrence of water environmental vulnerability is induced by intensifying shortage of water resource,water environment pollution,drought and flood disasters,and eco environmental deterioration. Studies on the vulnerability of water environmental system have become more and more important. Recent works pay attentions mainly to groundwater environmental vulnerability,water resource vulnerability,water environmental carrying capacity vulnerability and water inrush vulnerability. It's unilateral to study on the water environmental system vulnerability from a sole aspect. It is necessary to study the vulnerability from a combination of water resource,water environmental quality,drought and flood disasters,social,economic and eco environmental aspects. According to the characteristics of the water environmental system vulnerability which is sensitivity response of system status to pressure,the index system of the regional water environmental system vulnerability is built up based ona pressure state response model. The water environmental system is a complex system involving regional water resource,the quality of water resource,drought and flood disasters,social,economy and eco environment. Many uncertainties caused by discrepancy degree coefficient are uncertain while the uncertainties with connection number in regional water environmental system vulnerability are described. So there are many uncertainties in the research on the regional water environmental system vulnerability. In the process of using a connection number to describe the vulnerability,there is still uncertainty in the difference degree coefficients within ［-1,1］. Structural triangular fuzzy numbers are proposed to characterize the uncertainty of difference degree coefficient value,according to the expectation and square difference method for priorities of connection numbers with confidence level α.The decision analysis model is established using connection numbers of triangular fuzzy number. The model is applied for vulnerability assessment of water environment in Anhui Province. The results show as follows:(1)The vulnerability ratio of regional water environmental system in Anhui Province is between ［2731 3620］,ranking the cities as follows,Chizhou,Huangshan,Anqing,Tongling,Xuancheng,Wuhu,Lu'an,Hefei,Maanshan,Chaohu,Chuzhou,Huaibei,Fuyang,Bengbu,Huainan,Suzhou,Bozhou. According to the distribution of the water environmental system vulnerability in Anhui Province,the stronger vulnerable regions,for example,Bozhou,Suzhou,Huainan,are located in the plain of Northern Anhui. The vulnerability of regional water environment system is high because of the lack of water resources in plain area,mainly to the agricultural production,social and economic development relatively backward. The vulnerability of regional water environment system in riverside area is low because of the relatively abundant water resources,more developed social economy,and larger cost of water environmental treatment or protection,which is a larger role in the improvement of the situation of the water environment.(2)The index system of the regional water environment system vulnerability with clear concept,relatively independent connotation,and no conflict,overlap among the indexes,is scientific and practical.(3)The difference degree coefficient is described by the policy decision making model of the regional water environment system vulnerability based on the structural triangular fuzzy numbers. The uncertainty in standard node of the vulnerability index values of the regional water environment system can be effectively described