安徽省城市化进程中的碳排放影响因素研究——基于STIRPAT模型

通过对安徽省2000~2011年能源消费碳排放量及碳排放强度进行了测算分析，并基于STIRPAT模型，运用因子主成分回归方法，构建影响城市化进程中碳排放增长的驱动因子模型，对城市化进程中碳排放影响因子进行定量分析研究。研究表明：安徽省2000~2011年能源消费碳排放量呈逐年递增态势，碳排放强度和能源强度均逐年递减态势；安徽省在城市化快速进程中，第二产业产值、第三产业产值、城镇人口比重、城镇建成区面积、城镇居民人均可支配收入每增加1%时，碳排放总量将增加1.208 8%、0.202 0%、0.502 3%、4.793 8%、1.066 0%；当能源强度每下降1%时，碳排放总量将减少0.120 2%；城镇建成区面积扩张、工业化水平提升促进了能源的消耗，成为碳排放的主要驱动因素。鉴于此，提出严格控制城市发展用地规模、通过科技创新推动能源利用效率提高及开发利用新能源、优化产业结构及提高三次产业占GDP比重、建设紧凑型低碳城市、倡导低碳绿色生态的生产消费模式等政策建议，为实现建设生态文明以及实现“生态安徽”与“美丽安徽”目标提供科学依据，也可为中尺度（省级行政区）城市化进程中碳排放的研究提供示范

RESEARCH ON THE INFLUENTIAL FACTORS OF CARBON EMISSIONS IN THE PROCESS OF URBANIZATION IN ANHUI PROVINCE——BASED ON STIRPAT MODEL

The total amount and intensity of carbon emission from energy consumption in Anhui Province from 2000 to 2011 were calculated in this paper. Based on the STIRPAT model, a model of driving factors on carbon emission in urbanization was developed. A quantitative analysis was further conducted to reveal the driving factors of carbon emission from energy consumption in the process of urbanization. The contribution of each index to the growth of carbon emissions was comparatively analyzed. The results are as follows. Firstly, there was an increasing tendency of carbon emission from energy consumption but a decreasing tendency of carbon emission intensity and energy intensity. Secondly, every 1% increase in the second industry output value, the tertiary industry output value, proportion of urban population, urban construction area, urban per capita disposable income or energy intensity was achieved at the cost of increasing carbon emission by 1208 8%, 0202 0%, 0502 3%, 4793 8%, and 1066 0%, respectively. On the other hand, every 1% decrease in energy intensity was companioned by a decrease of 0120 2% in carbon emission. Thirdly, it was found that in the process of urbanization the expanding town area and the increasing industrialization level which became the main driving factors of carbon emissions promoted the consumption of energy. In view of the above mentioned results and in consideration of the conditions and the development trend of urbanization in Anhui Province, several corresponding suggestions on policy were then put forward. For example, the scale of land use in urbanization should be strictly controlled. Besides, with the help of scientific innovation, energy could be more efficiently taken into use and more new energies would be explored and utilized. Moreover, industrial structure is supposed to be optimized, the proportion of the third industry in GDP should be increased and low carbon city of compact style should be constructed. In addition, last but not the least, the green and low carbon pattern in production and expense should be advocated. This article is expected to contribute to the achievement of the target of constructing ecological civilization, “ecological Anhui” and “beautiful Anhui”. It is also hoped to play a sample role in studying the driving factors of carbon emissions in other provincial administrative regions