重庆市煤炭资源流动及其未来流量估测

从流量和流向两方面，评估探讨了重庆市煤炭资源流动平衡现状及其面临的问题，并根据对重庆市未来5年外省煤炭输入量的预测值，给出相应的建议。结果表明：（1）重庆市煤炭资源产消失衡，自给率逐年下降，需要大量调入外省煤炭弥补其缺口；重庆市煤炭资源流动比率不断上升，煤炭资源流入强度不断加大，对外依赖性不断加强。（2）经济的快速发展导致重庆市煤炭产需失衡，成为其煤炭资源流动持续增强的根本原因，煤炭资源势差是周边煤炭资源流入重庆的主要因素，距离成本、交通成本和价格差影响着重庆市煤炭供应源的具体选择，从而使距离近、交通通达性较好的四川和贵州成为重庆市主要的两个煤炭供应源。（3）在重庆市外部的煤炭产区中，宁夏、陕西、新疆有望成为重庆市煤炭供应的重要来源，加快陕煤南下以及疆煤入川、渝铁路通道建设是保障重庆乃至整个大西南地区能源供应稳定的重大举措。（4）根据未来5年重庆市外省煤炭输入量的预测结果，指出适当提高公路和水路煤炭运能等措施可解决短时期重庆煤炭紧张的问题。此外，发挥长江黄金水道作用和重庆港口优势，加强储煤基地、煤炭中转码头建设，是保障重庆市未来煤炭供应稳定和能源安全的有效举措

COAL RESOURCES FLOW AND ITS FLUX PREDICTION IN CHONGQING CITY

This paper, from both flow flux and flow direction, evaluated and discussed the balance status of coal resource flow and problems in the Chongqing City of China. The paper next made a prediction of importing coal for the next 5 years, and based on the projected results, it put forward some policy suggestions. The study revealed as follows. (1) Coal production and consumption in the Chongqing City were unbalanced, and its self support ratio decreased year by year. Therefore, it required a lot of coal from other provinces to make up for its shortage. The coal liquidity ratio in Chongqing City was rising, and the coal flux flowing into Chongqing City was also growing. All those indicated that external coal dependence for Chongqing City was continuing to strengthen. (2) Due to rapid economic development, coal production and consumption in the Chongqing City became unbalanced. So, economic development was the determinant for the continued strengthening of coal resources flow in Chongqing City. Coal resources potential difference was the main factor to determine coal resources in surrounding regions flowing into the Chongqing City. And based on above factors, which concrete coal source Chongqing City chose would depend on the cost of distance and transportation. (3) In the coal rich regions around the Chongqing City, Guizhou and Henan played minor roles in making up for the coal shortage, and Shanxi，Ningxia and Xinjiang should become important coal supply sources. Therefore, speeding up the planning and construction of railway from Shanxi and Xinjiang to Sichuan and Chongqing should be the focus of national coal railway transportation planning. (4) According to the projected results of importing coal from other provinces in the next 5 years, this paper presented that Chongqing City could improve coal transport capacity of highway and waterway in the short term to solve the energy bottleneck. In addition, Chongqing should play Yangtzes role as Golden waterway as well as its harbor advantage, and strengthen the construction of coal reserve base and coal transfer terminal, which were effective initiatives to guarantee the stable coal supply and energy security in the future in Chongqing City