南京市生态足迹时空特征及脱钩效应分析

为探寻资源环境与经济增长的可持续发展道路,利用修正的生态足迹模型,回顾了2000~2014年南京市生态足迹、生态承载力及生态赤字的时空特征,依据《南京市国民经济和社会发展十三五规划纲要》趋势外推生态足迹变化情况及其与经济增长的脱钩状态。结果表明:2000~2014年南京市人均生态足迹和人均生态赤字快速增长,人均生态承载力缓慢下降;研究期内南京市各区都出现了不同程度的生态赤字,且生态承载力呈现中心城区低,近郊和远郊区高的格局;生态足迹与GDP之间呈现弱脱钩、强脱钩、扩张连接3种状态,且弱脱钩指数不断减小,经济增长方式开始由粗放型向集约型转变;若按当前资源环境损耗量发展,"十三五"期间生态足迹继续增加,未来在实现可持续的经济增长方式上仍需努力。因此,南京市应坚持调整产业结构,转变经济增长方式;严格执行生态保护红线、永久基本农田保护红线,城市开发边界等"三条红线";实行差别化的国土空间格局优化措施;控制人口过快增长;逐步构建基于生态资产流转的生态补偿机制。

ANALYSIS ON THE SPATIAL-TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS AND DECOUPLING EFFECT OF ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT IN NANJING

Based on the improved ecological footprint model,this paper comprehensively analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics of ecological footprint,ecological carrying capacity and ecological deficit from 2000 to 2014 in Nanjing.The decoupling relationship between ecological foprint,ecological carrying capacity and ecological deficit from 2000 to 2014 in Nanjing.The decoupling relationship between ecological footprint and economic growth was also estimated.Depending on the government documents,the authors analyzed the changing trend of ecological footprint and its decoupling relationship with GDP during the 13th Five-Year Plan period.The results indicated that per capita ecological footprint and per capita ecological deficit grew rapidly during 2000-2014,with per capita ecological carrying capacity decreasing slowly.All districts in Nanjing suffered ecological deficit with varying extents,while ecological carrying capacity increased from city center to the suburban.The decreased decoupling index between ecological footprint and economic growth demonstrates that the economic development has transferred from extensive mode to intensive mode.If the current trend of resources consumption continues,ecological footprint will be enlarged in the future.Therefore,Nanjing should persistently adjust the industrial structure and accelerate the industrial upgrading,execute the "three red lines" strictly,implement differentiated optimization measures of territorial spatial pattern,control the population growth,and gradually build ecological compensation mechanism based on the transfer of ecological assets.