总量控制约束下区域用水结构调控策略及动态模拟

在既定水资源供给下,通过调控区域用水结构,提高用水效率与效益,使经济社会发展与用水总量限制的水资源约束相适应,是目前区域经济社会发展面临与亟待解答的关键科学问题。选择若干指标定量描述用水系统与社会经济系统耦合关系的基础上,以国民经济部门划分和用水主体划分相结合的方式,细化第一、二、三产业、生活和生态用水指标,建立了江苏省用水结构与产业结构、用水需求与经济社会发展指标互动反馈的模拟调控的系统动力学模型。在对当前发展模式下的江苏省用水总量发展趋势模拟预测分析基础上,选择对系统影响显著的参数作为调控变量,设计了5种对比情景,动态模拟水资源供求变化和用水结构变化情况,提出了江苏省用水总量控制下用水结构调控方案和对策,为区域落实最严格水资源管理制度提供决策依据。

STUDY ON REGIONAL WATER UTILIZATION STRUCTURE CONTROLLING STRATEGY AND DYNAMIC SIMULATION WITHIN THE GROSS VOLUME CONSTRAINTS

During the process of regional economic and social development, it has become an essential technical issue to improve the efficiency and benefits of water use via controlling regional water utilization structure under pre determined water supply and ensure the development of economy and society to be matched with gross volume constraint of water. In this paper, we chose several indicators to quantitatively describe the coupling relations between water use and socio economic system, refined indicates of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries, domestic and ecological consumption which are divided in the way of combining national economy sectors and water consumers, and set up the system dynamic model of Jiangsu Province which simulates water utilization structure and industrial structure and considers demand of water use and socio economic development. Based on the prediction and analysis of the current development trend of total water use in Jiangsu province, we selected parameters which affect system significantly as the controlling variable, designed five kinds of scene for contrasting, simulated changes in supply and demand of water resources and water utilization structure dynamically, to identify the simulation program of total amount of water constraining and water utilization structure controlling strategy in Jiangsu Province. The findings can help to promote regional economic development pattern and to take the intensive and organic growth path of development