皖江区域城市能级与生态环境协调度的测度和发展趋势研究

随着城市能级的不断提高,城市生态环境问题也日益突出,二者间协调发展成为城市发展一致的追求。以皖江区域10个城市作为研究地域单元,构建了城市能级与生态环境的指标体系,并建立了城市能级与生态环境的协调度模型。在此基础上,对皖江区域2002~2011年的城市能级与生态环境协调度进行了测度,研究发现过去10a皖江区域城市能级与生态环境的协调度处于较低水平。根据测定的协调度数据,建立了协调度自回归预测模型,并运用该模型探究了未来10a皖江区域城市能级与生态环境协调度的发展趋势,结果表明皖江区域城市能级与生态环境的协调度发展水平经过拮抗期和基本协调期后不断提高,将于2019年前后趋近高质协调发展阶段,即城市能级与生态环境两个系统有序互动发展的态势。

A RESEARCH ON MEASURMENT AND DEVELOPING TREND OF COORDINATION DEGREE BETWEEN CITY-LEVEL AND ECOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE RIVER AREA OF ANHUI PROVINCE

With the constant improvement of the city-level,the ecological environment problem of the city is increasingly outstanding.A coordinated development between the ecological environment and the city-level becomes a consistent pursuit of urban development.Taking the ten cities of the Yangtze River Area of Anhui province as the research region units,this study had built an index system to reflect the city-level and the ecological environment,and established a coordination degree model of the city-level and ecological environment.The model was used for measuring the coordination degree between city-level and ecological environment during 2002-2011 in Yangtze River Area of Anhui province.It was found that the coordination degree between the city-level and ecological environment during 2002-2011 in this area ranged from 0.4 to 0.5,indicating that:(1) the coordination degree in this area during this period is still in the development stage of antagonism; (2) the two systems development are in more disordered and relatively unstable development state of chaos; (3) the ascension of city-level is not corresponding well to the ecological environment; (4) the development level of the coupling coordination degree of presents slowly upward trend,but it is still in a lower level.This is because that the industrialization development level in this area is relatively low,and the city industry is still in a cluster development.According to the determination of the coordination degree of the data,a regression model forecasting the coordination degree was established and used to explore the coordination degree in this area during 2012-2021.According to the standard values,the estimated coordination degree during 2012-2021 can be divided into three main stages of development,namely the stage of development,the basic coordination development of antagonism,high quality coordination development phase.The results showed that the coordination degree will reach high quality coordinatuin development stage after antagonism and basic coordination in 2019.The coordination between the two systems of city-level and ecological environment will improve continuously,and the coordination level is expected to surpass 0.8,even has a tendency to rise further.