无锡市区耕地最低保有量测算及空间配置研究

耕地资源是社会经济稳定发展的物质基础。无锡市区近年来经济发展迅速，人均耕地面积仅7.3×10-3 hm2，粮食安全问题十分突出，人地矛盾十分尖锐。从粮食最低保有量的内涵出发，测算出无锡市区粮食最低保有量应为1.65×108 kg，进而通过选择粮食最低保有量、粮食复种指数等4个参数测算无锡市区2009～2020年耕地最低保有量为26 116 hm2。借助ArcGIS空间分析技术，选取耕地发展引导性和耕地发展约束性两类评价指标，对无锡市区现有耕地进行适宜性评价，将无锡市区耕地分为高度适宜区、中度适宜区、勉强适宜区、不适宜区4种类型。进而，结合耕地最低保有量，对耕地资源进行空间配置，发现锡山区的东北部、惠山区的西北部、新区的东南部等地区为无锡市区耕地最佳空间配置区，占最低耕地保有量的90％以上。〖

IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF LAND USE PLANNING ON TRADITIONAL AGRICULTURAL AREA OF THE SOUTHERN YANGTZE RIVER BASED ON ECOSYSTEM SERVICES VALUE

Protection and development of traditional agriculture have an important meaning for increasing regional resource sustainable utilization value.Taking Jinniu Village,a traditional agricultural area of the Southern Yangtze River as an example,the ecological services value of paddy system was evaluated with market value approach,production cost approach,opportunity cost approach,shallow project approach and cost surrogate approach.The ecological value coefficients of cropland, garden plot,woodland and water body ecosystems were adjusted by combing with biomass and price index based on the study of Chinese ecosystem services value.Then the changes of ecosystem services values of Jinniu Village were predicted and analyzed before and after the implement of land use planning.The results showed that during 2008 and 2020,the increase of ecological service functions would range from 10.70% to 100.73%,the total ecosystem services value would increase from 65680×104 yuan to 1 02210×104 yuan,and the proportion of paddy system in the total value would range from 50.67% to 53.63%.Sensitivity analysis manifested that the ecosystem services values of Jinniu Village were generally inelastic,and the ecological value coefficients calculated by this paper were reasonable.The land use planning would basically bring Jinniu Village a considerable eco environmental benefit,while the water body should be increased in order to promote tourism attraction.〖