化肥零增长行动对农业污染的减量贡献分析——基于GM(1,1)模型及脱钩理论

2015年2月,农业部制定《到2020年化肥使用量零增长行动方案》。为深入分析该政策在农业面源污染减量、农业产地环境改善及农业绿色发展中发挥的作用,借助灰色GM(1,1)模型及脱钩理论,模拟若无该行动实施时我国的化肥施用情况,探讨该行动对我国农业面源污染的减量贡献。研究发现:(1)我国化肥实际施用较模拟值减量明显;氮肥、磷肥及复合肥的实际施用量较模拟值均有不同程度的减少,其中复合肥的增长幅度虽有所放缓,但仍呈增长态势。(2)化肥零增长行动对我国农业面源污染防治工作意义重大;行动实施3年(2015～2017年)内的化肥污染排放减量占2014年总排放量的五分之一以上。(3)化肥零增长行动实施后,农业生产对化肥投入的依赖大大减弱;近几年农业生产与施用化肥导致的面源污染间逐渐表现为强脱钩状态,两者呈反向变化。(4)从施肥结构看,氮肥、磷肥均由弱脱钩转变为强脱钩状态,并保持基本稳定;复合肥脱钩指数虽有所下降,但仍未改变弱脱钩状态。(5)在空间层面上,各省区的农业生产与化肥面源污染之间的脱钩状态总体向好,东北、西南以及东南部区域农业生产对化肥投入的依赖性逐渐减弱,山东、江苏等5个农业大省已实现完全脱钩。最后从提高化肥利用效率,调整施肥结构,优化农业产业统计体系等角度提出建议,为政府制定相关政策提供参考。

Analysis of the Contribution of Fertilizer Zero Growth to Agricultural Pollution Reduction：Based on GM (1,1) Model and Decoupling Theory

In February 2015, the Ministry of Agriculture formulated the Zero-growth Action of Chemical Fertilizer Use by 2020. In order to deeply analyze the role of this policy in the reduction of agricultural non-point source pollution and the improvement of agricultural origin environment, this paper simulates the application of chemical fertilizers in China without the implementation of the action by means of grey GM (1,1) model and decoupling theory, and explores the contribution of the action to the reduction of agricultural non-point source pollution in China. The results showed that: (1) The actual application of fertilizer in China has significantly decreased compared with the simulated value; The actual application of nitrogen fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer and compound fertilizer was reduced to different degree, in which the growth rate of compound fertilizer was slowed down, but still showed a growth trend. (2) the Zero-growth Action of Chemical Fertilizer was of great significance to the prevention and control of agricultural non-point source pollution; Within three years of the implementation of the action, the reduction of fertilizer pollution emissions accounted for more than one-fifth of the total emissions in 2014. (3) After the implementation of the action, the dependence of China’s agricultural economic development on chemical fertilizer input was greatly weakened; in recent years, there has been a strong decoupling between the two, showing a reverse change. (4) From the perspective of fertilization structure, nitrogen fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer went from weak decoupling into a strong decoupling state, and maintained basic stability; Although the decoupling index of compound fertilizer decreased, it still did not change the weak decoupling state. (5) On the spatial level, the decoupling between agricultural production and non-point source pollution of fertilizer in all provinces and regions was generally better. The dependence of agricultural production on fertilizer input in northeast, southwest and southeast regions was gradually weakening, and major agricultural provinces such as Shandong and Jiangsu have completely achieved decoupling. Finally, the paper puts forward some suggestions from the perspectives of improving the utilization efficiency of fertilizer, adjusting the structure of fertilizer application and optimizing the statistical system of agricultural industry, so as to provide reference for the government to formulate relevant policies.