新疆水资源承载力评价与时空演变特征分析

水资源是经济社会发展的生命线,长期以来新疆面临着严峻的水资源短缺和生态环境脆弱性问题,研究水资源承载力时空演变特征成为新疆经济建设中亟待解决的问题。文章选取水资源、社会、经济、生态以及协调系统评价指标,通过构建水资源承载力综合评价模型计算水资源承载力综合评价指数,并对新疆15个行政区域的水资源承载状态和时空演变特征进行分析。结果显示:2016年,塔城地区、阿勒泰地区和巴音郭楞蒙古自治州属于水资源承载适宜区域,石河子市和克拉玛依市属于严重超载区域,阿克苏地区和喀什地区属于轻度超载区域,剩余8个区域属于濒临超载区域;从发展趋势来看,濒临超载和轻度超载区域略有减少,而承载适宜地区略有增加;整体而言,新疆多数区域水资源承载力处于濒临超载状态,水资源与经济社会的协调性普遍较低,各区域水资源分布极不均衡,经济发展、人口增长和水资源分布不匹配,但近十年多数区域水资源承载力综合水平整体向好发展。最后,提出提升各区域水资源承载力的政策建议。

Research on the Water Resources Carrying Capacity and Spatial-Temporal Characteristics in Xinjiang

Water resources are the lifeline of economic and social development, Xinjiang has been facing severe water shortage and eco-environmental vulnerability for a long time. Hence study the carrying capacity of water resources and it’s spatial-temporal characteristics in Xinjiang has become an urgent problem to be solved. This paper select the evaluation indexes of water resources, social, economic, ecology and coordination system, calculates the comprehensive evaluation index of water resources carrying capacity by building a comprehensive evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity in fifteen regions in Xinjiang. In addition, the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of water resources carrying capacity are analyzed. The result showed that: Tarbagatay Prefecture, Altay Prefecture and Bayingol Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture classified as the suitable carrying capacity area, Shihezi City and Karamay City classified as the grossly overloaded area, Aksu prefecture and Kashi prefecture classified as the lightly overloaded area, the other eight regions belong to the edge of the overloaded area; From the perspective of development trend, the edge of the overloaded area and the lightly overloaded area have been decreased slightly, while the suitable carrying capacity area have been increased slightly. Generally speaking, the most regions of Xinjiang’s water resources carrying capacity are on the edge of the overloaded area, the coordination level of water resources and socio- economic is generally low, the distribution of water resources are extremely unbalanced, and the distribution of water resources did not match with the distribution of population and economic development. But in nearly ten years, the comprehensive level of water resources carrying capacity shows a better development trend in most regions in Xinjiang. Finally, the policy suggestions are put forward to improve the carrying capacity of water resources.