长江经济带经济发展的时空分异及驱动机理研究

基于"空间—要素"的理论框架,综合运用ESDA空间统计、变异系数、基尼系数等方法研究长江经济带1994～2017年经济发展差异时空演变及经济发展阶段判读,运用全局回归(OLS)与地理加权回归模型(GWR)分析经济发展差异影响因素的空间异质性和驱动机理。研究表明:(1)长江经济带的经济发展差异从强集聚向弱集聚转变,经历了"萌芽—兴起—繁荣—转型"4个经济发展阶段,并呈现自我建设发展、区域大开发、趋同竞争、产业转型的阶段特征,区域经济呈现"均衡—不均衡—逐步均衡"态势。(2)长三角城市群为核心热点区,成渝城市群和滇中城市群为核心和次核心冷点区。经济发展经历集聚效应和涓滴效应交替,区域经济差异先扩大后减小而趋于均衡,符合"不平衡增长理论"规律。(3)地理加权结果表明,人口集聚、产业结构、外商投资、政府调控、交通发展、科技教育、金融状况是区域经济发展时空演化的正向内在动力,发展成本和地形条件是制约因素。产业结构是核心驱动力,科技教育是重要推动力,地形条件是发展基础。制定区域发展政策时,要考虑不同行政区和不同驱动要素的异质性和特殊性。

Spatial and Temporal Differentiation and Driving Mechanism of Economic Development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

This paper studies the spatial and temporal evolution of regional economic differences and the stage of economic development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 1994 to 2017 based on ESDA spatial statistics, variation coefficient and gini coefficient. The spatial heterogeneity of factors affecting economic development differences are analyzed by ordinary least squares (OLS) and geographical weighted regression model (GWR). The results show that: (1) The economic difference of Yangtze River Economic Belt changes from strong agglomeration to weak agglomeration. It has gone through four stages of economic development: germination, rise, prosperity and transformation. It presents the stage characteristics of self-construction and development, regional development, convergence and competition, and industrial transformation. Regional economy presents the situation of “equilibrium unbalance- gradual equilibrium”. (2) The Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is the core hot spot area, while Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration and central Yunnan urban agglomeration are the core and sub-core cold spot areas. Economic development experiences alternation of agglomeration effect and trickle-down effect. Regional economic disparities expand first, then decrease, and tend to be balanced, which conforms to the law of “unbalanced growth theory”. (3) Geographically weighted results show that population agglomeration, industrial structure, foreign investment, government regulation and control, traffic development, science and technology education, financial situation are the positive internal driving forces of the spatial and temporal evolution of regional economic development. Development costs and terrain conditions are constraints. Industrial structure is the core driving force. Science and technology education is an important driving force. Terrain condition is the basis of development. When formulating regional development policies, we should consider the heterogeneity and particularity of different administrative regions and driving factors.