基于典型相关分析的长江航运与水环境间关系的实证研究

长江的可持续发展将影响人们的生活和沿江城市的发展。研究旨在探讨长江航运发展与水环境间的关系。典型相关分析是研究两组变量之间相关关系的一种多元统计方法,运用该方法对2006～2016年的长江航运与水环境的相关数据进行分析,以长江航运景气指数和长江干流水系货运量表征长江航运发展状况,以长江废水排放量、氨氮浓度、生化需氧量、高猛酸盐指数和石油类表征长江水环境状况。结果表明,典型相关分析得出的第一典型相关系数(0.979)大于所有简单相关分析得出的相关系数,长江航运和水环境之间存在着显著的相关性。同时,通过典型相关模型可知,长江干流水系货运量对长江废水排放量和石油类有着显著的影响。最后,通过典型结构分析和冗余度分析结果可以看出,长江航运对长江水环境具有较强的解释能力。

Empirical Study on the Relationship Between Shipping and Water Environment of the Yangtze River Based on Canonical Correlation Analysis

Abstract：The sustainability development of the Yangtze River will affect people's life and the development of the cities along the Yangtze River.This study attempts to investigate the relationship between shipping development and water environment of the Yangtze River.Canonical correlation analysis is a multivariate statistical method to study the correlation between two groups of variables.This method is used to analyze the relevant data regarding shipping and water environment of Yangtze River from 2006 to 2016.The Yangtze River shipping prosperity index and the Yangtze River mainline freight volume are used to characterize the development of Yangtze River shipping.The water environment of the Yangtze River was characterized by wastewater discharge, ammonia nitrogen concentration, biochemical oxygen demand, potassium permanganate index and petroleum.The results show that the first canonical correlation coefficient (0.979) from canonical correlation analysis is larger than that from simple correlation analysis, and there is a significant correlation between shipping and water environment of the Yangtze River.As the result of the canonical correlation model, the freight volume of the Yangtze River has a significant impact on the wastewater discharge quantity and petroleum of the Yangtze River water environment.From the classical structure analysis and redundancy analysis results, we can find that the Yangtze River shipping has a strong ability to explain the water environment of the Yangtze River.