长江(江苏段)沿江开发环境风险监控预警系统

简要介绍了长江（江苏段）沿江开发带的基本情况，从区域环境质量及社会经济发展趋势两方面阐述了建立长江流域（江苏段）环境风险监控预警系统的意义。在总结目前国内外环境风险决策支持系统发展现状的基础上，论述了系统的目标、总体功能设计、框架设计以及关键技术，探索将地理信息技术运用于区域环境风险管理决策过程的方法，最后提出该系统还需从以下5个方面进行完善和改进，即追溯最大可信度风险源方法,应急救援系统、区域多环境风险事件的复合作用，发展特定有毒有机物水质预测模型和建立优先控制有毒有机物预警系统。该系统将为江苏长江开发战略提供实用型的环境管理手段。

MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEM FOR ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS IN AREAS OF JIANGSU PART OF THE YANGTZE RIVER

Based on the analysis of development in Jiangsu part of the Yangtze River Basin,the necessity for establishing environmental risk monitoring and warning system was presented in this paper in view of the regional environmental quality and socio-economic development.This paper also summarized the progress of environmental risk decision-making support system(ERDSS) in China and other countries,and the objective,functions,framework,key technologies,as well as the application of geographic information technology in ERDSS were analyzed.The monitoring and warming system can be improved in the following five aspects:(1) probability-based risk source tracking system,(2) emergency system,(3) synergetic effect of multiple risk events,(4) water quality prediction model for toxic substances,and(5) priority system for toxic substances.This system will provide a practical environmental management tool for social and economic development in Jiangsu along the Yangtze River.