江南丘陵县域农业资源利用与农业结构优化

针对南方红壤丘陵区农业资源利用的现状，以湖南省桃江县为例，应用灰色关联度模型定量分析了农业各部门产值对农业总产值的影响程度。结果发现，近50年来桃江县农业各部门的关联序列为：种植业（0.887 5）>牧业（0.760 2）>渔业（0.675 6）>林业（0.543 3）。种植业和牧业产值的变化对桃江农业总产值的波动起着主导作用。基于历史统计数据，利用灰色预测模型预测了2001~2005年5年内桃江县农业各部门产值的变化趋势。预测结果表明，各部门发展对农业总产值的关联度分别为：种植业（0.611 3）>渔业（0.358 7）>林业（0.347 6）>牧业（0.334 7）。比较两组关联序列可以清楚发现农业产业各部门的发展潜力。结合桃江农业资源和各部门的发展趋势，提出了桃江县农业结构优化调整的方向。

UTILIZATION OF AGRICULTURAL RESOURCES WITH ITS OPTIMIZATION IN AGRICULTURAL STRUCTURE IN RED SOIL HILLY AREA IN THE YANGTZE BASIN

Aiming at the present utilization state of agricultural resources in red-soil hilly area of south China,this paper analyzed the characteristics of the agriculture resource and the state of agricultural structure in Taojiang county,Hunan province. According to the statistics of Taojiang county, the authors quantitatively analyzed the influence on agricultural gross output value caused by the output value change of farming,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery by applying gray incidence analysis. The array of gray incidence degree from 1950 to 2000 was: Farming (0.887 5) > Animal husbandry (0.760 2) >Fishery \{(0.675 6)\} >Forestry (0.543 3). The result indicted Farming and Animal husbandry were main factors to cause the change of agriculture gross output value. By gray method (1,1),the gross and individual output values of agriculture from 2001 to 2005 were predicted. Based on the result,this paper worked out gray incidence degree: Farming (0.611 3) >Fishery(0.358 7)>Forestry (0.347 6) > Animal husbandry\{ (0.334 7).\} By comparing the two arrays,the potential industry could be clearly concluded.In combination with agricultural resources and the developing trend of agricultural industry,the authors brought forward the optimizing direction of agricultural structure in Taojiang county.