1996~2013年长江经济带工业发展过程中的大气环境污染效应

大气污染物排放及影响因素研究,是引导区域减排实现可持续发展的重要依据。利用Tapio脱钩模型测度了1996~2013年长江经济带11个省区工业经济增长与工业废气、工业二氧化硫、工业烟粉尘3个指标之间的脱钩程度,并利用LMDI分解模型对大气污染物排放变化特征进行了影响因素分解。结果表明：（1）长江经济带11个省（市）的工业废气排放量呈持续上升的趋势,且工业废气排放量的“热”点区域主要集中在东部地区,工业二氧化硫和烟粉尘两种大气污染物排放量总体呈现“先增加后减少”的趋势,状况有所改善。（2）长江经济带工业废气排放整体经历了从扩张性负脱钩到相对脱钩发展的趋势,表明经济发展的同时带来工业废气排放的污染同步增长。经济发展效应和能源效率效应是促使工业废气排放的主要因素。（3）长江经济带的工业二氧化硫和烟粉尘排放整体上经历了从相对脱钩向绝对脱钩发展的趋势,经济发展均是造成各地区两种污染物排放量增加的主要原因,技术效应和能源效率是各地区两种污染物减排的重要影响因素。未来,在大气污染物的减排控制过程中,需加强产业结构、能源结构的调整,也需坚定依靠技术进步推动能源使用效率的提高,并且注重各省市间的减排差异和防范污染产业的区域转移。关键词： 长江经济带;经济增长;大气环境;脱钩分析模型;LMDI分解模型

ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTION EFFECTS IN THE PROCESS OF INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE YANGTZE RIVER ECONOMIC BELT DURING 1996-2013

Understanding on air pollutant emissions and the influencing factors is an important basis to guide the regional emission reduction to achieve a sustainable development.In the paper,the Tapio analysis model was used to measure the decoupling degree between industrial economic growth and three indexes,including industrial exhaust gas,industrial sulfur dioxide and industrial smoke dust in 11 provinces of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 1996 to 2013.The LMDI decomposition model was used to decompose the influencing factors of air pollutant emission characteristics.The results show that:(1) The industrial emissions from all provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Belt showed a continuous upward trend,and the "hot" areas of industrial emissions mainly concentrated in the eastern region.The total emissions of industrial sulfur dioxide and smoke dust showed a "first increase and then decrease" trend,implying an improved recent situation.(2) The total industrial emissions in Yangtze River Economic Belt experienced a transformation trend from the expansionary negative decoupling to relative decoupling.It shows that,with the development of the economy,industrial pollution caused by industrial emissions increased simultaneously during this period.The economic development effect and the energy efficiency effect are the main factors to promote the emission of industrial waste gas.(3) The industrial sulfur dioxide and smoke dust emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt have experienced the trend of development from relative decoupling to absolute decoupling.Economic development is the main reason leading to the increase of the two kinds of pollutants in each region.However,technical efficiency and energy efficiency are the two important ways to reduce the two pollutants emission in these areas.In the future,it is therefore necessary to strengthen the adjustment of industrial structure and energy structure in the process of emission reduction control of air pollutants.Meanwhile,we must firmly rely on technological progress to promote the improvement of energy efficiency and pay attention to the differences of reduce emissions among different provinces and prevent the regional transfer of pollution industries.