湖北省土地利用减碳增效系统仿真及结构优化研究

土地利用变化是引起碳排放的重要原因之一,土地经济效益是利用土地的目标之一,如何通过优化土地利用结构实现土地利用减碳增效是值得研究的重要问题。基于系统结构与功能相互作用的视角,梳理复杂系统内变量间的反馈关系,运用系统动力学(SD)进行建模,将约束条件纳入到多目标规划(MOP)中,实现MOP与SD模型整合,进行系统仿真并得出优化后2020年湖北省土地利用结构。结果显示,利用SD-MOP模型能够实现减碳增效目标下土地利用结构优化,与2008年真实值相比,耕地、林地、牧草地及建设用地分别增加了0.33×10~4、30.17×10~4、0.08×10~4和16.37×10~4 hm~2,其他农用地及未利用地分别减少7.23×10~4、33.15×10~4 hm~2;与无约束SD单模型仿真相比,土地利用碳排放量减少了58×10~4 t,经济效益年增长率维持在3.58%,优化方案具有可行性。SD-MOP模型优化的土地利用结构符合区域可持续发展要求,兼顾了土地利用碳减排和经济效益增长的双重目标,能为区域土地资源优化配置提供参考。

STUDY ON SIMULATION AND STRUCTURE OPTIMIZATION OF LAND USE CARBON REDUCTION AND EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT SYSTEM OF HUBEI PROVINCE

Land use changes are among the main factors that induce carbon emissions. One of the goals of land use is to pursue the benefits. It's important to optimize land use structure for achieving both carbon reduction and increasing efficiency. Based on the perspective of the interaction between system structure and function, in this paper we explored the feedbacks among the variables in the subsystems of carbon reduction, efficiency increasing of land use. Using the system dynamic to build a simulation model for the system, we put the constraint condition into the multi-objective programming model (MOP), combined the model of MOP and SD into one model, and acquired optimized land-use structure of Hubei Province in 2020 through system simulation. The result showed that the SD-MOP model can be used to optimize the land use structure under the conditions of carbon emission reduction and efficiency increase. Compared with the data of 2008, cultivated land, woodland, grassland and construction land increase by 3.3 thousand ha, 301.7 thousand ha, 0.8 thousand ha and 163.7 thousand ha, respectively. On the other hand, other agricultural lands and unutilized lands decreased by 72.3 thousands ha and 331.5 thousands ha, respectively. In contrast to SD model without constraints, land use carbon emission reduced by 580 thousand tons, the annual growth rate of economic efficiency was maintained at 3.58%, showing that the scheme is feasible. Optimization of land use structure based on the SD-MOP model can meet the requirements of regional sustainable development and take into account the dual goals of land use carbon emission reduction and economic benefit growth, which can provide reference for the optimal allocation of regional land resources.