长江中游城市群经济与生态成本空间演化模式分析

综合运用变异系数、泰尔指数及ESDA-GIS多种方法,在充分考虑传统经济影响因子的基础上,尝试引入经济发展生态成本指标,分析长江中游城市群经济综合发展水平与生态成本的空间匹配及演化模式。研究表明:经济综合发展水平高低聚集特征明显,空间极化现象是导致区域经济发展不平衡的主要原因;生态成本空间集聚现象以高高集聚和低低集聚为主,且呈现出高高集聚减少、低低集聚增多的现象,生态成本消耗有所改善;2001~2012年长江中游城市群市域经济综合发展水平与生态成本表现出越来越显著的差异化空间格局,呈现出由低经济综合发展水平-低生态成本过渡到高经济综合发展水平-高生态成本,进而发展到高经济综合发展水平-低生态成本的空间匹配模式的阶段性特征;高经济综合发展水平-高生态成本的经济发展模式仍在大部分城市中存在,经济与生态空间协调发展的潜力仍然很大。

ANALYSIS ON THE SPACE EVOLUTION MODEL OF THE ECONOMY AND ECOLOGICAL COSTSIN YANGTZE RIVER MIDDLE REACHES URBAN AGGLOMERATIONS

Takingthe Yangtze River middle reachesurban agglomerationsas a case study, the ecological costsof economic development is introduced, combining traditional factors influencing economy, to analyze the spatial economymatching and evolution patterns of the level of economic development and ecological costs based on variation coefficient, Theil index and ESDA-GIS.The results showthat there is an obvious aggregationcharacteristics of economic development, and the phenomenon of spatial polarization mainlycauses the unbalanced development of regional economy.The high-high (HH) and low-low (LL) spatial clusters dominant the patterns of spatial clusters in ecological cost and there is a decrease tendency of HH clusters with an increase tendency of LL clusters, which indicates that consumption of ecology cost has been improved. From 2001 to 2012, the comprehensive level of economic development and ecological costs in the Yangtze River middle reachesurban agglomerationsexperiences a more and more significantspatial disparity, showing a transition from low level of economic development with low ecological costs to high level of economic development with high ecological costs, further toa spatial matching mode of high level of economic development with low ecological costs.The model of high level of economic development with high ecological costsstill exists in many cities, and there is still a great potential for coordinated development of economy and ecological space.