安徽省棉花冰雹灾害风险区划研究

雹灾风险区划是雹灾风险研究的重要内容，对制定区域性的雹灾防灾减灾对策具有指导意义。而雹灾风险评价是开展雹灾风险区划的前提和基础。以我国雹灾频发区--安徽省为例，选择其主要经济作物棉花为承灾体，基于区域灾害系统理论和棉花雹灾风险区划数据库，在“E-H-V-R”四维评价基础上，提出了多技术手段和多方法相结合的“3（E、H、V）+1（R）”维的雹灾风险区划方法，编制了安徽省棉花雹灾风险图，将其划分为淮北平原区、江淮平原丘陵区和皖南山区3个一级区，10个二级区和19个三级区，为安徽省棉花雹灾风险管理和防灾减灾工作的开展提供科学依据，同时为其他区域和其他灾害风险区划研究提供方法和技术参考

RISK REGIONALIZATION OF HAIL DISASTER FOR COTTON OF ANHUI PROVINCE

As an important part of hail disaster risk research，regionalization of hail disaster has a significant effect for formulating regional countermeasure on disaster mitigation and prevention. Assessment of hail disaster risk is the precondition and foundation of the hail disaster risks regionalization. Anhui Province where hail disasters are frequent was taken as an example. In this province hail disasters frequently occur April to September，and are coincident to main growing stages of cotton，which is one of the main economic crops in this province. Although its short duration time，small influence scope and strong abruptness，hail poses a grave threat to cotton farming. This influence mainly manifests in the following five aspects：breaking leaves and stem of cotton，knocking cotton bolls，battering growing point and causing total destruction. Therefore，it is very important to study the influence of hail disaster to cotton and to map the zonation of risk for secure production of cotton. Based on the regional disaster system theory and hail disaster risk assessment database of cotton，risk analysis is taken and atlas of risk assessment was compiled from four dimensions respectively-sensibility of environment，hazard of hail，vulnerability of cotton and risk of hail. Among them，with hail disaster magnitude index （H） and loss rate of cotton （L） ，which are obtained with the method of statistical inference and comprehensive index measure，hail disaster risk of cotton was carried out based on constructed model for calculating annual loss rate of cotton hail：Sa=∑〖DD（〗n〖〗i=1〖DD）〗Si－∏〖DD（〗n〖〗i=1〖DD）〗Si=1－∏〖DD（〗n〖〗i=1〖DD）〗（1－Si）. Then cotton hail risk zoning of Anhui Province was complete with multi method，such as GIS technology，method of “top down” and “bottom up”，cluster analysis and reference of remote sensing images. Zoning indexes include assessment result of disaster forming environment sensibility，topography and landform，frequency of hail falling，proportion of cotton planting，regionalization result of single factor，and result of risk assessment. Finally risk regionalization maps of hail disaster for cotton of Anhui Province were mapped with GIS. Anhui Province could be regionalized to 3 regions （HuaiBei plain，Jianghuai region and mountain area of South Anhui），10 sub regions and 22 units. The southeast of Huaibei plain，west of Huaibei plain and Yanjiang plain were main planting areas of cotton. Sensibility，hazard and vulnerability were all high in those areas. So those areas were key districts to attention for cotton production and hail disaster management. In this paper three & one dimensional risk regionalization methods，combined with multi technology and multi method，were presented. This research could provide scientific bases for hail disaster risk management，disaster prevention and mitigation. It also offers an efficient method for other regions and disasters.