江苏省能源需求预测及二氧化碳减排研究

近年来，江苏省社会经济进入新的发展期，在经济高速发展的背后是能源的高消耗以及温室气体的大量排放。根据江苏省实际情况，运用LEAP模型建立了JSLEAP模型，并采用情景分析的方法，根据影响江苏省能源需求的因素设定了参照情景和可持续发展情景两个情景，系统地、全面地对江苏省未来能源需求和碳排放的发展趋势进行了分析，并提出了江苏省中长期能源发展对策，对江苏省制定正确的能源发展规划、实现可持续发展具有重要意义。研究表明：在两种情景下江苏省未来能源需求总量将持续增加，直到2045年后才有所下降；居民生活、第一产业、第二产业、第三产业各部门能源需求情况都将有所变化；人均CO2排放量、单位GDP的CO2排放量都将降低。但是无论是能源需求或碳排放方面，可持续发展情景都优于参照情景

ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST AND CO2 MITIGATION IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

In recent years,the socio economic development of Jiangsu Province has entered a new period of rapid development,which is accompanied by the high consumption of energy and the enormous emission of GHG. In 2010,the GDP of Jiangsu Province was 4.142 5 trillion yuan,which is 20% higher than 2009.Meanwhile,in the same year Jiangsu Province consumed 257.737 million tons of standard coal equivalent ,with 80% of the energy imported from other provinces.Nowadays energy consumption and economic growth are becoming increasingly salient conflicts in Jiangsu Province.At the same time,GHG emissions also become one of the main restrict factors of economic development in Jiangsu Province .Due to high energy consumption,Jiangsu Province produced 621.2 million tons of CO2 emissions,and GDP per capita CO2 emissions were 3.34 tons/ten thousand Yuan in the year 2005.While in the year 2008 the CO2 emissions were 833.4 million tons and GDP per capita CO2 emissions were 2.69 tons/ten thousand Yuan.The GDP per capita CO2 emissions of the year 2008 just fell by 19.8%,compared to that of the year 2005.According to the actual situation in Jiangsu Province,the Long range Energy Alternative Planning System Model is involved to develop Jiangsu Model in our empirical study.Two scenarios,reference scenario and sustainable development scenario,are set by the potential and vital factors affecting energy demand in Jiangsu Province.The future energy demand and CO2 emission trends in each scenario from 2010 to 2050 are simulated and predicted,and accordingly,the energy development stratagems for Jiangsu Province are put forward as conclusion.The results of our empirical study show that,in two kinds of scenarios,the total energy demand of Jiangsu Province will continue to rise until the year 2045.In the reference scenario,the total energy demand of Jiangsu Province will be 331.075,394.057,482.775 and 472.999 million tons of standard coal equivalent in the year 2020,2030,2040 and 2050,respectively.While the total energy demand in the sustainable development scenario is assumed to fell by 12.50% in the year 2020,7.34% in the year 2030,11.5% in 2040 and 17.9% in the year 2050,compared to that of the reference scenario.In future,the second industry is still energy intense sector,but on development trends,and its proportion of the total energy demand by the second industry will be reduced.In contrast,the energy consumption by the tertiary industry,ranked the second,is assumed to rise gradually.The primary energy demand in the future will still give priority to coal,but because of treatment costs and other constraints,the coal demand increase slowly,and the proportion of coal demand is assumed to decline.However,the share of renewable energy is assumed to rise steadily,and it may become the important alternative energy sources for coal.Research also shows that the CO2 emission and CO2 emission intensity in sustainable development scenario is lower than that in reference scenario