巫山县生态承载力研究

由于三峡工程的开工建设，巫山县大量移民就地后靠，土地所承载的压力剧增，阻碍了巫山县社会经济的可持续发展。利用生态足迹原理和模型对巫山县2005~2010年土地生态承载力进行分析，并运用相关分析、主成分分析等方法将生态足迹指标与传统经济指标相结合，分析了巫山县社会经济的发展对生态足迹的驱动作用，为巫山县的生态建设及可持续发展提供依据及参考。结果表明：巫山县生态足迹呈现逐年增加的趋势，且近几年增加速度明显加快，而生态承载力则基本持平，人均生态赤字由2005年的1336 2 hm2增长至2010年的2194 2 hm2，说明巫山县对自然资源的消费远远超过了区域所能提供的资源供给，阻碍可持续发展。在此基础上本研究以巫山县2005~2010年的生态足迹时间序列作为模型因变量，并根据区域社会经济发展与生态足迹变化的作用机理选择了8个社会经济发展相关指标为自变量，建立多元线性回归模型。模型检验结果令人满意，并通过相关性分析、主成分分析等手段揭示了巫山县社会经济发展指标对人均生态足迹的强烈驱动作用

STUDY ON THE ECOLOGICAL CARRYING CAPACITY IN WUSHAN COUNTY

Land resources are the carrier of all resources and environmental factors，which has played an extremely important role in the socio economic operation.Wushan County is mainly mountainous，the land resources are very barren，the arable land which mostly is sloping land has a poor quality，and the soil erosion is much more serious than other areas.Due to the construction of the Three Gorges Project,a large number of immigrants need to build their new home in place.The pressure which is carried by land is surging.All of the above has hindered the sustainable socio economic development in Wushan County.In recent years，scholars note that the rational utilization of land resources in Wushan County has a crucial importance on sustainable development and the coordinated development of the human land relationship in Wushan County.Because of this，the scholars have conducted a preliminary study and have published a number of papers.The number of the research papers which is mainly about ecological footprint of the county scale accounts for 783% of the total number of papers of the ecological footprint.The quantity of the papers is very poor and the number of the results of original research is very small.In the process of quantitative analysis of the land carrying capacity in Wushan County，the paper referred to the results of previous studies，and used ecological footprint model to analyze the land carrying capacity in Wushan County from 2005 to 2010，to provide a basis and reference for the ecological building and sustainable development in Wushan County.In this paper，the land of ecological carrying capacity of Wushan County from 2005 to 2010 was analyzed by using the principles and models of the ecological footprint.According to the principles and models of the ecological footprint，this paper calculated the ecological footprint from 2005 to 2010 in Wushan County，the ecological carrying capacity in 2005 and 2010 in Wushan County，and the ecological footprints of production per ten thousand Yuan in Wushan County.On the basis of the computing results，the paper analyzed the tendency of the ecological footprint and the ecological footprints of production per ten thousand Yuan from 2005 to 2010，and analyzed the ecological deficit and surplus in Wushan County.The results show that Wushan County ecological footprint had an increasing trend，increased from 1 812 374.4 hm2 to 1 203 357 hm2.In recent years，the Wushan County ecological footprint increased significantly faster，but the ecological carrying capacity was not much different between the year of 2005 and 2010.Between six years,the ecological footprint of Wushan County significantly exceeded the land of ecological carrying capacity，so that the ecological deficit came out.The per capita ecological deficit grew from 1.336 2 hm2 to 2.194 2 hm2.The consumption of natural resources was far more beyond the resources that the region could supply;as a result，it hindered the sustainable development of Wushan County.The ecological footprint of production per ten thousand Yuan was in the downward trend in volatility in Wushan County.From 2005 to 2010，it decreased by 201 hm2，presenting a declining trend.The resource utilization had a gradual increase in efficiency.The output rate of the biologically productive area was increasing.The mode of economic development was developing from extensive，energy intensive type to an intensive，energy efficient type.On this basis，time sequence of ecological footprint model from 2005-2010 was established as dependent variable in this study，and according to the change mechanism of regional social and economic development and the ecological footprint，eight social economic development related index was chosen as the independent variable，then the linear regression model was established.Model test result was satisfied，and through correlation analysis，principal component analysis and other methods revealed the strong drive effect from social and economic development index to the per capita ecological footprint