长江中游防洪减灾系统可持续性评价研究

长江中下游平原地区是我国经济发达地区，也是我国洪涝灾害最严重地区之一，根据长江流域可持续发展要求，提出两个问题，一是长江中下游平原区要走可持续发展之路，如何使区内社会经济发展与洪涝灾害相协调，这属于地区可持续发展问题，二是防洪减灾系统能否持久地发挥作用，为社会经济可持续发展提供保障，即防洪减灾系统可持续性评价问题，首先讨论了防洪减灾系统可持续性评价的基本涵义，提出了可持续性评价的5个准则，即功能持久性，风险最低性，经济可行性，环境可承受性及社会可接受性，其次，以长江中游平原分蓄洪工程为例，提出了相应的评价指标体系；最后，选择有效蓄洪量，蓄洪面积，围堤长度，耕地面积，区内人口，区内安全台面积等为指标，建立了分蓄洪工程可持续性评价模型－均衡规划模型，并进行了实例分析探讨。

EVALUATION ON SUSTAINABILITY OF FLOOD CONTROL AND HAZARD MITIGATION SYSTEMS IN THE MIDDLE REACH OF THE YANGTZE RIVER

The middle and lower plain of Yangtze River is an economically developed area, but is one of those areas where severe flood hazard often occurs. Based on the strategy for sustainable development of Yangtze River basin, two kinds of problems should be taken into account: one deals with the sustainable development in this region to reach the coordination of social-economic development and flood disaster control the another, called as the evaluation on the sustainability of flood control and hazard mitigation (FCHM) systems, concerning that the systems are effective perennially and supporting in relation to sustainable social-economic development. In this paper, the fundamental meaning of sustainability evaluation of the FCHM systems is discussed. The five corresponding criteria are presented, which are expressed as followings: the sustainability of function, the acceptable risk, the economic feasibility; the environmental bearing capacity and the social acceptability. Then, four kinds of assessment factors,including engineering,natural environmental,economic and social factors,are analyzed briefly,and an evaluation indicator system is presented.With respect to the sustainability of flood diversion and detention basins in the middle reach of the Yangtze River,an assessment model named as compromise programming model is developed,in which six indicators are applied:the area of storing flood,the length of dyke,the area of farming land,the population in storing region,the active capactity of storing flood,the area of safety facilities.finally,a case study was carried.