湖北“两圈”区域发展可持续性评价与预测

利用可持续发展指数（SDI）对湖北“两圈”各市州发展现状进行了评价，而后利用9年的人均生物资源生态承载量年平均增长率、人口年平均增长率和足迹承载量比值年平均增长率及2006年相关数据对未来44年进行了预测。结果表明，截至2006年底，湖北省有一半以上国土面积的生物资源开采超过当地土地负荷，人均生物资源生态承载量持续下降，资源日益紧张，呈不可持续发展；武汉城市圈2006年生物资源生态足迹超出生物资源生态承载量的32%；鄂西生态文化旅游圈（简称：鄂西生态圈）除襄樊、荆州、荆门因人口多，生物资源生态足迹较大等原因导致SDI值较高外，其他市州的SDI值均较低；神农架的SDI最小；武汉城市圈人均生物资源生态承载量呈负增长，人口控制较好，足迹承载量比值增长较快；鄂西生态圈人均生物资源生态承载量呈负增长，增长速率大于武汉城市圈和湖北省，人口控制较差，足迹承载量比值增长较慢；按照现有发展模式，无论是武汉城市圈还是鄂西生态圈，无论其当前发展是可持续性还是不可持续的，未来他们都将进入不可持续的发展状态。因此，对“两圈”进行规划时要根据各自发展现状制定长期、科学的发展规划.

EVALUATION AND PREDICTION OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE “TWO CIRCLES&rdquo|IN HUBEI PROVINCE

Development status of every city in the “two circles” areas,namely,Wuhan urban circle (WUC) and western Hubei eco culture tourism circle (WEC),was evaluated by calculating sustainable development index (SDI〖WTBZ〗).According to average increasing rate of 9 years’ ecological capacity of biological resource (ECBR) per capita,average increasing rate of population and average increasing rate of ratio between ecological footprint and ecological capacity (〖WTBX〗fcr〖WTBZ〗),the development status were predicted from now to the next 44 years.The results showed that:(1)by the end of 2006,biological resource exploitation in more than half of Hubei province exceeded the ecological capacity,resulting in decrease of ECBR per capita,scarcity of the 〖JP2〗biological resources and non sustainable development status of〖JP〗 this area;(2) ecological footprint of biological resource (EFBR) exceeded 50% of the ECBR in WUC;(3) the SDI〖WTBZ〗 of Xiangfan (XF),Jingzhou (JZ) and Jingmen (JM),which had a larger population and higher EFBR,were lower than that of any other city in WEC,and the SDI〖WTBZ〗 of Shennongjia is the lowest in WEC;(4) WUC had a faster growth of 〖WTBX〗fcr〖WTBZ〗,which reflect the sustainable development status directly,a negative growth of the ECBR per capita and better population control;(5) WEC had a slower growth of 〖WTBX〗fcr〖WTBZ〗,a negative growth of the ECBR per capita whose increasing rate was larger than that of Hubei and WUC,and worse population control;(6) in accordance with the existing development model,the development of both WUC and WEC would be non sustainable in near future,therefore,scientific and long term development plan should be made according to each present development status.