南京市快速城市化过程中人均生态足迹的动态变化与预测研究

基于《南京统计年鉴》数据，应用生态足迹分析方法，计算了南京市1992～2002年人均生态足迹、人均生态承载力和生态赤字，并对过去11年生态足迹各项指标及其动态变化进行了分析。结果显示，南京市人均生态足迹明显高于江苏省平均水平，更是高于全国水平的2倍，已超过了2.0 hm2/人的全球生态阈值，人均生态承载力明显偏低，全市生态赤字高达自身面积的20倍，表明南京市资源环境形势不容乐观，区域可持续发展面临严峻挑战。随着城市化、工业化和社会经济的迅速发展，过去11年间南京市呈现人均生态足迹逐年升高、人均生态承载力不断降低的动态趋势。鉴于此，必须实施资源节约高效、生态环境友好、控制人口负荷等重大战略举措，实现快速城市化、工业化背景下的区域可持续发展。其次利用灰色模型预测了2003～2005年的人均生态足迹和生态承载力，预测精度较好。

DYNAMICS AND FORECASTING OF AVERAGE ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT AND CARRYING CAPACITY DURING RAPID URBANIZATION PROCESS OF NANJING CITY

Based on the data from Nanjing statistical yearbooks, a variety of the ecological footprint indicators, including per capita ecological footprints, per capita ecological carrying capacities and ecological deficits of the Nanjing region in the period from 1992 to 2002 was calculated in this study, by the use of corresponding methodology. Furthermore, dynamic changes of the indicators mentioned above during the past 11 years were analyzed. First of all, the data obtained indicated that, the per capita ecological footprint of the Nanjing region was much higher than the average of Jiangsu Province, and even 1 time higher than nation level of China measured in 1997. Meanwhile, the ecological carrying capacity of the Nanjing region was comparatively much lower, and the ecological deficit in the year 2002 even reached the area 20 times bigger than Nanjing territory. The figure of the per capita ecological footprint was already beyond the global ecological critical value 2. 0 hm2 per capita, suggesting a great pressure on the local natural resources and ecosystem and a serious challenge to Nanjing regional sustainable development. And, along with rapid local economic growth driven by urbanization and industrialization, the ecological footprint and ecological deficit kept increasing, while the ecological carrying capacity was decreasing in the Nanjing region during the period from 1992 to 2002. For a better future of sustainable development, therefore, the strategic measures such as high-efficiency utilization of energy sources, environmental-friendly develop- ment of natural resources, effective control of population growth, and persistent conservation of arable lands as well should be carried out. The gray model was used to predict the average ecological footprints and ecological carrying capacities from 2003 to 2005. The results were credible.