水污染突发事件：演化模型与应急管理

概述了突发事件演化研究的现状，总结了现阶段中国水污染突发事件的典型案例，研究了事件的演化过程，提出把社会因素和全过程干预作为水污染突发事件演化动因的一个重要方面，并在此基础上分析了水污染突发事件演化的主要动力因素，运用灾害学、应急管理、环境科学等相关理论构建了事件演化的动力因素体系，最后从系统分析的角度构建了水污染突发事件演化模型。研究表明：社会因素和应急干预对水污染突发事件的演化具有推动作用；事件演化具有阶段性，不同阶段的动力因素存在差异；水污染突发事件应急管理具有多目标性，单一目标应急管理不能有效控制水污染突发事件演化。研究水污染突发事件演化机理可为政府有效地预警与事件初期的应急决策提供重要的理论依据。

WATER POLLUTION EMERGENCY INCIDENTS:EVOLUTIONARY MODEL AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

This article overviewed current research situation of emergencies and typical cases of China at the present stage,studied the process of incidents evolution,proposed that the whole process of emergency intervention and social factors as an important aspect of water pollution evolution.On this basis,this article analyzed the major dynamic factors of evolution of water pollution incidents,construction of the dynamic factors system of incidents evolution by applying disaster theory,emergency management and environmental science.Finally,this article built the evolution model of water pollution emergency incidents from the view of system analysis.The results show that social factors and emergency interventions promote the evolution of water pollution incidents;the evolution of water pollution emergency incidents exists phased;dynamic factors at different stages are different;water pollution incidents emergency management with multi-targeted,single target emergency management cannot effectively control the evolution of water pollution incidents.Studying the evolution mechanism of water pollution emergency incidents,we can provide important theoretical basis for the government to take effective early warning measures and emergency decision at early stage.