长江经济带碳排放现状及未来碳减排

长江经济带是我国"三大支撑带"之一,其碳减排目标实现对我国生态文明建设具有重要意义。采用2005~2013年长江经济带(含9省2市)的能源消耗与经济社会数据,通过数理统计,得出各地历年碳排放量、人均碳排放、能源强度、产业结构多元水平的具体数值及变化率,结合运用弹性计算和矩阵分类法,发现长江经济带碳排放存在空间与结构差异。研究结果显示:(1)长江经济带碳排放及增长率、人均碳排放及增长率、能源强度都高于全国平均水平,能源强度下降率低于全国平均水平;把长江经济带分为东中西三段区域,碳排放总量、人均碳排放及能源强度下降率梯度下降,碳排放增长率、人均碳排放增长率、能源强度梯度上升。(2)工业化开始越早、重工业化主导向生产性服务业主导转变越快、越充分地区,经济低碳化水平越高;通过提升产业结构多元化速度有利于碳减排。(3)长江经济带各地实现碳减排措施应有不同,东段地区应着重降低人均碳排放,中西段地区应着重于降低能源强度。(4)未来碳减排应兼顾公平与效率,各地区碳减排目标分配应结合各地支付能力、碳汇能力、生产效率、能源结构等因素来安排。

STATUS QUO OF CARBON EMISSION AND FUTURE CARBON EMISSION REDUCTION FOR THE YANGTZE RIVER ECONOMIC ZONE

The Yangtze River Economic Zone is one of three pillars of China's economy. The successful implementation of carbon emission reduction in the Yangtze River Economic Zone is important to the construction of ecological civilization in China. In this paper we used social and economic data and data of energy consumption in the Yangtze River Economic Zone (including 9 provinces and 2 municipalities) during 2005-2013, and statistical analyses to quantify carbon emission, per capita carbon emission, energy intensity, evolution of industrial structure diversification degrees and the their rate of change. By using the elastic computing and matrix classification methods, we quantified the spatial and structural differences in carbon emission of the Yangtze River Economic Zone. The results showed that: (1) Yangtze River Economic Zone's carbon emission and its growth rate, per capita carbon emission and its growth rate, and energy intensity were all higher than the national average level. While the rate of reduction in energy intensity was lower than the national average level. If we divide the Yangtze River Economic Zone into eastern, middle and western regions, the total amount of carbon emission, per capita carbon emission and energy intensity rate all declined in gradients; while the growth rate of carbon emission, the growth rate of per capita carbon emission and energy intensity all increased in gradients. (2) The regions that began industrialization earlier, and were transformed from heavy-industry-oriented to service-industry-oriented faster and more fully, will have higher level of low-carbon economy. Increase in the speed of industrial structure diversification degree is positive to the carbon emission reduction. (3) Different regions of the Yangtze River Economic Zone should use different measures to achieve carbon emission reduction targets. The eastern region should focus on reducing carbon emission per capita, the middle region and the western region should focus on reducing energy intensity. (4) Future carbon emissions reduction measures should focus on both fairness and efficiency, and the targets of carbon emission reduction should be allocated in accordance with financial capability of each region, carbon sink capacity, production efficiency, energy structure and other factors.