城镇化进程中生态足迹的动态变化及影响因素分析——以安徽省为例

以快速城镇化的安徽省为例,在计算出该省1995~2013年生态足迹数据的基础上,分析其动态变化,并采用偏最小二乘(PLS)回归方法、STIRPAT模型研究了影响生态足迹的因素。结果表明:从生态足迹的动态变化来看,该省1995~2013年的生态足迹和生态赤字均较大,且呈不断上升态势,安徽省的城镇化发展是不可持续的。从生态足迹的影响因素来看,人口因素、经济因素以及技术因素均对生态足迹具有显著影响。其中,技术进步对人均生态足迹的增长具有抑制作用,而人口总数的增加、三大产业的发展、城镇化水平的提高和居民消费增加均会造成生态足迹增加;城镇化的影响最大,城镇化率每提升1%,人均生态足迹就会上升0.210 5 hm2。根据分析,建议安徽省在未来的新型城镇化进程中,要防止城镇化过快发展,实施"紧凑型"城市发展战略,要注重利用技术创新提高能源利用效率、促进产业结构升级,并通过大力宣传绿色生活方式等多种途径降低生态足迹,促进城镇化可持续发展。

A STUDY ON ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT'S DYNAMIC CHANGE AND INFLUENCE FACTORS IN THE PROGRESS OF NEW PATTERN URBANIZATION: A CASE OF ANHUI PROVINCE

The rapid development of urbanization brought about serious resources and ecological problems. From 1995 to 2013, Anhui province experienced fast urbanization. The urbanization rate rose from 17.4% in 1995 to 47.9% in 2013, totally rising 30%. Especially from 2005 to 2013, the average annual increase rate of urbanization was 1.6%, higher than the national average value of 1.3%. With the case of Anhui province, this paper studied the development path of new pattern urbanization from the perspective of ecological footprint. Firstly, it calculated ecological footprint from 1995 to 2013 of Anhui province, then discussed its dynamic change, lastly analysed factors affecting ecological footprint. Results showed that the per capital ecological footprint of Anhui province was increasing year by year. From 1995 to 2013, it increased from 0.888 3 hm² per capital to 2.445 7 hm² per capital, annually growing 7.62% on average. While the ecological deficit of Anhui Province was also increasing yearly from 1995 to 2013, up from 0.410 6 hm² per capita in 1995 to 1.722 1 hm² per capital, rising more than 3 times. The size and the amount of increase of six categories of land were different. The size of per capital ecological footprint, fossil land's ecological footprint accounted for more than a half, the second was arable land, and others' ecological footprint was relatively small. From the perspective of the amount of increase, the ecological footprint of grassland increased fastest, from 0.013 2 hm² per capital to 0.085 5 hm² per capital in 2013, almost growing 6 times. The building land's ecological footprint had risen more than 4 times, from 0.001 4 hm² per capita in 1995 to 0.007 2 hm² per capital. The ecological footprint of forest land, water area and fossil land have risen about twice. While the arable land's ecological footprint has been stable during 1995 to 2013, maintaining 0.32 hm² per capital. These data showed that the urbanization of Anhui province was not sustainable. Demographic factors, technical factors and economic factors affect ecological footprint significantly. Among them, technology progress inhibited the increasing of ecological footprint. Results showed that if ecological footprint intensity grew 1 unit, the ecological footprint would decrease 0.078 9 units. It indicated that enhancing the efficiency of resource usage can reduce the impact of economic activities on the ecological environment. The growth of population brought about the growing of ecological footprint. If population grew 10 thousand, the per capital ecological footprint would increase 0.013 5 hm². In theory, the improvement of population quality decreased the ecological footprint, and can also increase the ecological footprint by causing more consumption. So the empirical analysis demonstrated that consumption matters more than population quality. As to economics factors, there was positive correlation between urbanization rate and ecological footprint. Among factors selected in this paper, urbanization rate has the greatest influence on ecological footprint. If urbanization rate increase every 1%, the per capital ecological footprint will rise 0.210 5 hm². And the development of three main industries increased the ecological footprint. In details, the output of primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry growing 1 unit would respectively cause ecological footprint up 0.098 7 units, 0.103 1 units and 0.055 8 units. From this result, we can conclude that the development of the secondary industry has the greatest to ecological footprint, the second was the primary industry, and the last was the tertiary industry. Consumption caused increasing ecological footprint. Urban residents' consumption played a slightly greater role on ecological footprint than rural residents'. The consumption of urban resident and rural resident rising 1 unit brings about per capital ecological footprint increasing 0.167 3 units and 0.158 2 units respectively. Finally, according to the analysis, appropriate countermeasures were proposed to reduce ecological and promote sustainable development of new pattern urbanization in the future, such as preventing urbanization from developing too fast; implementing "compact type" urbanization development strategy; utilizing technology innovation to promote the efficiency of energy use and promote industrial upgrading; and advocating green life-styles.