上海港对间接腹地经济的作用研究——基于资本路径和物流路径

资本流和物流作为海港对间接腹地经济作用的载体,可以根据其作用路径进行详细分析。通过尝试性地建立面板数据模型,分析海港资本作用枢纽—物流园区、支线港和无水港对间接腹地经济的影响,结合海港对作用枢纽的影响力算法,研究得出上海港通过资本路径对间接腹地生产总值的产出弹性为0.058 6。通过物流路径的系统动力学分析对SD流图进行描述,结合Eviews软件设定各要素的数学方程,选择上海港进行仿真分析,并用历史数据对模型进行检验,误差在可接受的范围之内。进一步对系统进行短期预测,结合预测的结果发现货物运输对间接腹地经济作用的弹性约为0.7。最后分别对上海港主要的吞吐货种进行系统仿真,发现集装箱和石油、天然气及制品的物流运输对间接腹地经济影响最大。

IMPACT OF SHANGHAI PORT ON ITS INDIRECT HINTERLAND ECONOMY——BASED ON THE PATH OF CAPITAL AND LOGISTICS

Capital flow and logistics could be as a carrier of the harbor to indirect hinterland economy effect, in this paper, based on its path for a detailed analysis. This paper tentatively built the panel data model to analysis port hub role of capital, Logistics park the feeder port and anhydrous port had influence on indirect hinterland economy, further combined with influence algorithm of port hub role, and the empirical research revealed that the capital path of the Shanghai port to indirect economic hinterland of gross output elasticity was 0.058 6. Through the logistics system dynamics analysis of the path of SD flow chart described, combined with the mathematical equations set each element of the Eviews software, choosing Shanghai port for the simulation analysis, and using historical data to test the model, the error is within an acceptable range. Further by short-term forecasting system, combined with the result of prediction found the goods transport on indirect hinterland economy effect of elasticity was about 0.7. Finally, respectively, by the Shanghai mainly increased the throughput of system simulation, it found containers and oil, natural gas and products of logistics transportation had the greatest influence on indirect hinterland economy.