基于IPCC方法的湖南省温室气体排放核算及动态分析

为温室气体减排提供决策参考,基于IPCC和中国《省级温室气体清单编制指南》,核算了1995~2011年湖南省温室气体排放,并对其动态作了分析。结果表明: 2011年湖南省温室气体排放总量为594.7 Mt CO₂e,主要温室气体CO₂、CH₄和N₂O的排放量分别为471.3、100.8和22.6 Mt CO₂e,占排放总量的比例依次为79.25%、16.95%和3.79%。能源消费是温室气体排放的主要来源,2011年的排放量达421.5 Mt CO₂e,占排放总量的70.87%。林业呈现为碳汇效应,2011年的值为18.2 Mt CO₂e,消解温室气体排放量的3.06%。研究时段内温室气体从241.7 Mt CO₂e增长为594.7 Mt CO₂e,年均增长率达9.12%,可分为3个阶段,其中,1995~1999年波动降低,1999~2003年缓慢上升,2003~2011年快速增长,变化率依次为-3.32%、4.69%和17.37%。能源利用效率明显提高,万元GDP温室气体排放量由10.64 t CO₂e/万元减少到2.93 t CO₂e/万元,年均减少7.75%,但人均温室气体排放量由3.65 t CO₂e增加到8.07 t CO₂e,年均增长5.08%,减排压力较大。

ACCOUNTING AND DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION IN HUNAN PROVINCE BASED ON THE IPCC METHOD

Global warming caused by greenhouse gas emission may cause severe environmental and social problems. As climate problem is becoming increasingly serious, the preparation of greenhouse gas emissions inventory has become important basic work of research on greenhouse gas. Some researches hve been undertaken on greenhouse gas accounting and some progresses have been made. However, there are many shortcomings in this research field. The main problem is that current research is mainly focused on carbon emission, particularly carbon emission from fossil fuel combustion, and is less involved in carbon fixation and ways of assessing regional carbon emission levels. Although much research were related to carbon emission, the results are difficult to compare owing to inconsistent research methods and standards. Based on the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories and the Provincial Greenhouse Gas Inventory Preparation Guide of China, this paper analyzed the dynamic of greenhouse gas emission in Hunan Province during 1995-2011. The results showed that, the component of greenhouse gas emissions wass predominant with CO₂, with a proportion of 79.25% to the total emissions, and the second part is CH₄ and the third part is N₂O with a proportion of 16.95% and 3.79%, respectively. Energy consumption is the main reason for the increase in greenhouse gas emissions in Hunan Province, and forestry carbon sequestration ability needs to improve. Greenhouse gas emissions by energy consumption, agricultural production, waste treatment and cement production was 421.5、641.6、592.2、498.8Mt CO₂e, of which accounted for 70.87%, 10.79%, 9.96% and 8.39%, respectively. Forestry performance for carbon sequestration effect with a 18.2Mt CO₂e, of which fixed 3.06% of the total greenhouse gas emissions. From 1995 to 2011, the greenhouse gas emissions increased from 241.7 to 594.7Mt CO₂e in Hunan Province, ant its fluctuations can be divided into the slowly decrease stage(1995-1999), the slow rise stage (1999-2003) and the rapid growth stage (2003-2011). The greenhouse gas emission per 10000 Yuan GDP reduced from 10.64 to 2.93, indicating that carbon reduction technology has made great progress and energy efficiency has been greatly improved in Hunan Province. However, the greenhouse gas emission per capita had increased very quickly from 3.65 to 8.07 t CO₂e. The greenhouse gas emission increasing trend cannot be ignored. So it is urgent to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Countermeasures for greenhouse gas emission reduction in Hunan province were put forward at the paper. First, actively explore new energy and to enhance the energy utilization efficient. Secondly, increase the vegetation cover rate to increase the carbon sequestered ability in vegetation. Thirdly, advocate low carbon life. Fourthly, accelerate the development of low carbon economy and green economy.